9a181ae43b
Added SUMMARY.md executive summaries to all 7 datasets with: - 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE section at top - 12-word one-liners for quick reference - Confidence levels and caveats - Extensive authoritative linking - Alternative Estimates sections where applicable - Changelogs for revision tracking Updated Data/README.md with: - Quick reference table of all datasets - Full schema documentation - Confidence level guidelines - Anti-patterns to avoid Datasets standardized: - Knowledge-Worker-Global-Salaries (gold standard) - US-GDP - US-Inflation - US-Presidential-Approval - Bay-Area-COVID-Wastewater - US-Common-Metrics - Pulitzer-Prize-Winners 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings Dataset
Overview
This directory contains authoritative U.S. presidential approval ratings data spanning from Franklin D. Roosevelt (1937) through Joe Biden (2025), compiled from multiple polling organizations with a primary focus on Gallup's consistent methodology. Presidential approval ratings are one of the most important indicators of presidential performance and public sentiment toward government.
What's Inside
- Historical-Approval-Polls-1937-2024.csv - Individual approval polls (12,479 data points, 1937-2025)
- Historical-Net-Approval-First-Terms.csv - Daily average net approval ratings for first-term presidents (1,460 days)
- Trump-Approval-2025.csv - CURRENT PRESIDENT Trump second term approval polls (33 polls, Jan-Nov 2025)
- Biden-Approval-2024-2025.csv - Biden final year approval polls (81 polls, Jan 2024 - Jan 2025)
- Trump-Approval-Analysis-2025.md - CURRENT YEAR ANALYSIS Trump approval trend analysis
- Trump-2025-Data-Methodology.md - Data collection methodology for 2025 polls
- Biden-Approval-Analysis-2024-2025.md - Biden final year trend analysis
- README.md - This file
- UPDATES.md - Change log for data updates
- RESOURCES.md - Data sources and access information
- source.md - Detailed library science metadata and cataloging
Data Source Research
How This Source Was Identified
Research across multiple authoritative sources evaluated:
- Gallup Organization's historical presidential approval data (1937-present)
- American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) aggregated polling
- Roper Center for Public Opinion Research archives
- FiveThirtyEight polling aggregation (discontinued 2024)
- Individual polling organizations (Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, etc.)
- Academic research datasets and GitHub repositories
- Polling methodology and consistency standards
- Public accessibility and data formats
Primary Source Selected: Multiple Polling Organizations (Aggregated)
Primary Data Source:
- GitHub Repository: https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president
- Data Compiler: Lorenzo Ruffino (academic research compilation)
- Base Data: Multiple polling organizations including Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, and others
Why This Source:
- Comprehensive coverage from 1937 to present
- Includes data from 14 presidents across 87+ years
- Contains detailed poll-level data (12,000+ individual polls)
- Aggregates multiple polling organizations for robust coverage
- Open source and publicly accessible
- Includes metadata: polling dates, sample sizes, polling organizations
- Follows consistent data structure for cross-temporal analysis
Historical Authority: Gallup Organization
- Gold standard for presidential approval tracking since 1937
- Uses consistent question: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way [President] is handling his job as President?"
- Professional probability-based sampling methodology
- Published continuously for 87+ years
- Used by Federal Reserve, media, and policymakers
Why This Source Is Reputable
Authority & Credibility
-
Gallup as Gold Standard
- Established 1935, pioneered scientific polling methodology
- Consistent presidential approval question since FDR (1937)
- Professional polling organization with rigorous methodology
- Widely cited by academics, government, media
- No partisan affiliation or commercial bias
-
Multi-Source Aggregation
- Dataset includes polls from 15+ professional polling organizations
- Cross-validation across multiple pollsters reduces single-source bias
- Sample sizes typically 1,000+ respondents per poll
- All included polls use probability-based sampling with live interviewers (phone) or high-quality online panels
-
Scientific Rigor
- Standardized approval/disapproval question format
- Documented sample sizes, polling dates, and margins of error
- Representative national samples (U.S. adults, registered voters, likely voters)
- Transparency in methodology and data collection
-
Institutional Validation
- American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) maintains official Gallup data
- Roper Center (Cornell University) archives all major polls
- Academic researchers use this data for peer-reviewed publications
- Federal Reserve and government agencies track presidential approval
-
Temporal Consistency
- 87+ years of continuous data (1937-2025)
- 12,000+ individual polls across 14 presidents
- Allows for robust cross-presidential comparisons
- Captures approval trends through all major historical events
-
Public Accessibility
- Open source data available on GitHub
- No paywalls or institutional access requirements
- Reproducible research enabled
- Community validation and error correction possible
Dataset Specifications
Coverage
Individual Polls (Historical-Approval-Polls-1937-2024.csv):
- Geographic: United States (national samples)
- Temporal: 1937 - January 2025 (87+ years)
- Polls: 12,479 individual approval polls
- Presidents: 14 presidents (FDR through Biden)
- Latest: Biden approval at 37-41% (January 2025, multiple polls)
First-Term Net Approval (Historical-Net-Approval-First-Terms.csv):
- Coverage: First 1,460 days of presidency (4 years)
- Presidents: 14 presidents with first-term data
- Metric: Daily average net approval (approval % - disapproval %)
- Format: Time-series indexed by day number (1-1460)
Recent Biden Data (Biden-Approval-2024-2025.csv):
- Temporal: January 2024 - January 2025
- Polls: 81 individual polls
- Organizations: Gallup, AP-NORC, CNN, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, American Research Group, Marquette Law School, and others
Metrics
Individual Polls Dataset:
- President number and name
- Term number and term dates
- Poll start and end dates
- Polling organization
- Approval percentage
- Disapproval percentage
- No opinion/unsure percentage
- Sample size
First-Term Net Approval Dataset:
- Day number (1-1460 from inauguration)
- Net approval for each president (approval - disapproval)
- Comparable time-series across presidents
Data Quality
- Completeness: 87 years of continuous data; some gaps for early presidents
- Reliability: Professional polling organizations using scientific methodology
- Timeliness: Updated regularly as new polls are published
- Accessibility: CSV format, no authentication required, open source
Presidential Approval Context
Presidential approval ratings serve as:
- Political Capital Indicator: High approval enables legislative success
- Reelection Predictor: Approval >50% strongly correlates with reelection
- Public Confidence Measure: Reflects citizen trust in government
- Policy Effectiveness Signal: Approval responds to economic conditions, crises, policy outcomes
- Historical Benchmark: Enables comparison across administrations
Approval Rating Ranges
Typical Ranges:
- 60-80%: Honeymoon period, major crisis rally (9/11, Pearl Harbor)
- 50-60%: Strong approval, likely reelection
- 40-50%: Mixed approval, competitive reelection
- 30-40%: Weak approval, difficult governing environment
- Below 30%: Historical lows (Truman 1952, Nixon 1974)
Current Context (as of November 2025)
CURRENT PRESIDENT: Donald Trump (Second Term)
Trump Second Term Approval (November 2025):
- Current Approval: 36-44% (average ~41%)
- Current Disapproval: 49-62% (average ~54%)
- Net Approval: -13 points (Nate Silver average)
- Trend: Declining (government shutdown impact)
- Peak Approval: 52% (late January 2025, post-inauguration)
- Lowest Approval: 36% (November 2025, AP-NORC)
- Total Decline: -11 points from peak (52% → 41%)
Year-to-Date Pattern (2025):
- Jan-Feb: Honeymoon period (48-52% approval)
- Mar-May: Post-honeymoon decline (44-48%)
- Jun-Aug: Summer plateau (44-46%)
- Sep-Nov: Autumn decline (36-44%)
Key Factors:
- Government shutdown began October 1, 2025
- Net approval declined from -9.3 (Oct 1) to -13.0 (Nov 17)
- Republican approval down 12 points since inauguration (91% → 79%)
- Economic approval underwater: Economy -17.6, Inflation -27.5
Previous President: Biden Approval Trend (Final Year)
January 2024: 33-41% (range across polls) Q1 2024: 37-46% (increased slightly) Q2 2024: 36-42% (relatively stable) Q3 2024: 36-44% (slight increase) Q4 2024: 36-42% (stable through election) January 2025: 36-41% (final approval ratings)
Key Observations:
- Biden's approval remained relatively stable 36-42% throughout final year
- Some polling variation based on organization and methodology
- Never exceeded 46% in 2024-2025 period
- Final approval ~40% consistent with term average
Key Presidential Approval Moments in Dataset
Highest Approval Ratings
- George W. Bush: 90% (September 2001, post-9/11 rally)
- Harry Truman: 87% (June 1945, WWII victory)
- John F. Kennedy: 83% (April 1961, early presidency)
- Dwight Eisenhower: 79% (December 1956)
- Lyndon Johnson: 79% (February 1964)
Lowest Approval Ratings
- Harry Truman: 22% (February 1952, Korean War)
- Richard Nixon: 24% (July-August 1974, Watergate)
- Jimmy Carter: 28% (June 1979, economic crisis)
- George W. Bush: 25% (October 2008, financial crisis)
- Donald Trump: 34% (December 2017)
Historical Inflection Points
- Pearl Harbor (December 1941): FDR approval surge to 84%
- Watergate (1973-1974): Nixon collapse from 67% to 24%
- 9/11 (September 2001): Bush surge from 51% to 90%
- Financial Crisis (2008): Bush decline from 37% to 25%
- COVID-19 (2020): Trump remained relatively stable 42-49%
Use Cases
This dataset supports:
- Political Science Research: Presidential performance analysis, election forecasting, public opinion dynamics
- Policy Analysis: Evaluating policy effectiveness through approval response
- Economic Correlation: Relationship between economic indicators and presidential approval
- Crisis Response Studies: How presidents gain or lose approval during national emergencies
- Comparative Administration Analysis: Cross-presidential performance comparisons
- Media Analysis: Presidential coverage impact on public opinion
- Substrate Integration: Supporting Claims, Arguments, and Plans with authoritative polling data
Data Interpretation Notes
-
Polling Variation:
- Different polling organizations show 3-7 point variation
- Sample composition (adults vs. registered voters vs. likely voters) affects results
- Polling methodology (phone vs. online) introduces variation
- Use multiple polls or aggregated averages for robust analysis
-
Approval vs. Job Performance:
- Presidential approval is general sentiment, not policy-specific
- Approval responds to economic conditions, crises, scandals, media coverage
- High approval doesn't guarantee policy success; low approval doesn't guarantee failure
- Approval is one indicator among many for presidential effectiveness
-
Temporal Dynamics:
- "Honeymoon period": First 100 days typically show highest approval
- Midterm decline: Approval often drops by second year
- Rally effect: Crises (wars, attacks) temporarily boost approval
- Late-term stability: Approval often stabilizes in fourth year
-
Net Approval:
- Net approval = Approval % - Disapproval %
- Positive net approval (>0%) indicates more approve than disapprove
- Negative net approval (<0%) indicates more disapprove than approve
- Net approval more sensitive to changes than approval alone
-
Sample Sizes:
- Typical poll: 1,000-1,200 respondents
- Margin of error: ±3-4 percentage points (95% confidence)
- Smaller samples have larger margins of error
- Look for trends across multiple polls, not single poll results
Maintenance
See UPDATES.md for detailed change log of data refreshes and updates.
Update Schedule:
- As Published: New polls added when released by polling organizations
- Weekly-Monthly: During active presidency, polls published frequently
- Continuous: Historical data maintained and validated
Next Recommended Update: Ongoing as new polling data is published
Comparison with Other Political Indicators
Presidential approval should be considered alongside:
- Congressional Approval: Typically lower than presidential (15-30%)
- Economic Indicators: GDP growth, unemployment, inflation correlate with approval
- Generic Ballot: Democratic vs. Republican preference for Congress
- Direction of Country: "Right track" vs. "wrong track" polling
- Policy-Specific Approval: Ratings on economy, foreign policy, healthcare, etc.
Last Updated: 2025-11-17 Maintained By: Substrate Data Curation Update Frequency: Continuous (as polls are published) Data Coverage: 1937-2025 (87+ years, 12,000+ polls)