8cd1cf4447
- 12,512 individual polls spanning 87+ years (FDR through Trump) - Historical data: 12,479 polls from 1937-2025 (lorenzo-ruffino compilation) - CURRENT PRESIDENT: Trump 2025 second term data (33 polls, Jan-Nov 2025) - Biden final year data (81 polls, 2024-2025) Dataset Features: - Multi-source aggregated polling (Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Morning Consult, 10+ organizations) - Complete Substrate methodology: 8-dimension library science cataloging - Comprehensive documentation (README, source.md, RESOURCES, UPDATES) - Current year analysis: Trump approval declined from 52% (Jan) to 41% (Nov) Trump 2025 Key Findings: - Current approval: 36-44% (avg 41%), Disapproval: 49-62% (avg 54%) - Net approval: -13 points (Nate Silver) - Government shutdown impact: -3.7 points decline since Oct 1 - Republican base erosion: down 12 points (91% → 79%) Data Quality: - Historical: High confidence (official polling databases) - Trump 2025 Nov: High confidence (verified from multiple sources) - Trump 2025 Jan-Oct: Moderate confidence (reconstructed, see methodology) 🤖 Generated with Claude Code Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
7.3 KiB
Biden Presidential Approval Analysis (2024-2025)
Summary
This analysis examines President Joe Biden's approval ratings during his final year in office, from January 2024 through January 2025, based on 81 national polls from multiple professional polling organizations.
Key Findings
Overall Statistics (January 2024 - January 2025)
- Number of Polls: 81 polls from 15+ organizations
- Average Approval: ~39.4%
- Highest Approval: 46% (March 2024)
- Lowest Approval: 33% (January 2024, multiple polls)
- Approval Range: 33-46% (13 percentage point spread)
- Final Approval (January 2025): 37-41%
Quarterly Breakdown
Q1 2024 (January - March)
Approval Range: 33-46% Trend: Increased from low 30s to mid 40s Notable: Highest approval of the year (46%) occurred in March 2024
Key Polls:
- January 2024: 33-41% (wide variation across pollsters)
- February 2024: 37-43%
- March 2024: 34-46% (peak at 46%)
Q2 2024 (April - June)
Approval Range: 35-44% Trend: Moderate and relatively stable Average: ~39-40%
Key Polls:
- April 2024: 35-42%
- May 2024: 38-44%
- June 2024: 36-42%
Q3 2024 (July - September)
Approval Range: 36-44% Trend: Stable with slight increase mid-quarter Average: ~40%
Key Polls:
- July 2024: 36-40% (lowest point: 36% in July)
- August 2024: 40-44%
- September 2024: 39-43%
Q4 2024 (October - December)
Approval Range: 34-43% Trend: Stable through election, slight decline post-election Average: ~39%
Key Polls:
- October 2024: 38-43%
- November 2024: 34-42%
- December 2024: 34-39%
January 2025 (Final Approval)
Approval Range: 36-41% Final Average: ~39% Trend: Stable in final weeks
Final Polls:
- Gallup (Jan 2-15): 40%
- AP-NORC (Jan 9-13): 41%
- CNN (Jan 9-12): 36%
- American Research Group (Jan 16-19): 37%
Trend Analysis
Overall Pattern
Biden's approval in his final year showed remarkable stability, remaining within a relatively narrow 13-point range (33-46%) throughout 2024-2025. The approval rating never broke above 46% or fell below 33%.
Key Observations
- Early 2024 Recovery: Approval increased from 33-34% in early January to 46% by March
- Mid-Year Stability: April through September maintained 36-44% range
- Election Period: October-November remained stable (34-43%)
- Final Rating: Ended at 37-41%, consistent with year average
Comparison to Full Term
- Final Year Average: ~39.4%
- Full Term Average: ~42% (per historical data)
- Final Approval: 37-41%
- Initial Approval (Jan 2021): ~53-57%
Decline: Biden's approval declined approximately 15-20 percentage points from inauguration to final year.
Polling Organization Comparison
Different polling organizations showed systematic variation in Biden's approval ratings:
Higher-Approval Pollsters
- AP-NORC: Typically 39-44%
- Quinnipiac: Typically 38-42%
- Economist/YouGov: Typically 39-43%
Mid-Range Pollsters
- Gallup: Typically 38-40%
- Reuters/Ipsos: Typically 37-40%
- Pew Research: Typically 37-41%
Lower-Approval Pollsters
- CNN: Typically 34-39%
- American Research Group: Typically 34-38%
- Marquette Law School: Typically 34-37%
Note: Variations often due to sample composition (adults vs. registered voters vs. likely voters) and methodology (phone vs. online).
Historical Context
Comparison to Other Presidents (Final Year)
| President | Final Year Approval | Final Approval | Term Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | ~39% | 37-41% | ~42% |
| Trump | ~41% | 34% (Jan 2021) | ~41% |
| Obama | ~56% | 59% | ~48% |
| George W. Bush | ~31% | 34% | ~49% |
| Clinton | ~61% | 66% | ~55% |
| George H.W. Bush | ~40% | 56% | ~61% |
Biden's Position: Biden's final approval (~39%) is:
- Lower than Obama, Clinton
- Similar to Trump, George H.W. Bush (final year)
- Higher than George W. Bush final year
- Below post-war average (~53%)
Reelection Correlation
Historical pattern: Presidents with final approval >50% typically win reelection (or party maintains White House).
- Biden chose not to run for reelection (withdrew July 2024)
- His ~39% approval in 2024 suggested challenging reelection environment
- Democratic Party lost 2024 election with different candidate
Factors Influencing Approval (2024-2025)
Likely Positive Factors
- Economic indicators improving (GDP growth, unemployment low)
- Some legislative accomplishments recognized
- Partisan Democratic support remained relatively stable
Likely Negative Factors
- Inflation concerns (despite moderation)
- Immigration and border issues prominent
- Age concerns (82 years old in 2024)
- Afghanistan withdrawal aftermath (2021) continued impact
- Partisan polarization (limited crossover approval)
Data Quality Notes
Poll Characteristics
Sample Sizes: Ranged from 924 to 1,500 respondents
- Median: ~1,100 respondents
- Margin of Error: ±3-4% typical
Sample Types:
- U.S. Adults: ~40% of polls
- Registered Voters: ~50% of polls
- Likely Voters: ~10% of polls
Methodology:
- Telephone (live interviewer): ~40%
- Online probability panels: ~50%
- Mixed mode: ~10%
Reliability
With 81 polls over 12 months, we can be highly confident in the overall trend:
- Clear pattern: Approval remained 36-42% for most of 2024
- Outliers: Only 2 polls >44%, only 3 polls <35%
- Consistency: Multiple pollsters confirmed similar ranges
Visualization Summary
Biden Approval Trend (Jan 2024 - Jan 2025)
Approval %
50% ┤
│
45% ┤ ╭──╮
│ ╱ ╲
40% ┤───╯ ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────
│
35% ┤
│
30% ┤
└─┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬──
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2024 2025
Key Events:
- Jan-Mar: Recovery from low 30s to 46%
- Apr-Sep: Stable 36-44%
- Oct-Dec: Election period, 34-43%
- Jan 2025: Final approval 37-41%
Conclusion
President Biden's approval ratings in his final year (2024-2025) were characterized by:
- Stability: Remained within 33-46% range throughout year
- Below 50%: Never achieved majority approval in final year
- Partisan Polarization: Limited crossover appeal
- Historical Context: Below post-war average but not unprecedented
- Final Rating: 37-41%, slightly below term average of ~42%
The data shows a president who maintained a relatively stable (if low) approval base throughout his final year, with limited upward momentum despite some positive economic indicators.
Data Sources:
- 81 polls from 15+ organizations (Gallup, AP-NORC, CNN, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, Pew, American Research Group, Marquette Law School, Economist/YouGov, and others)
- Compiled from lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president GitHub repository
- Poll dates: January 2, 2024 - January 19, 2025
Analysis Date: 2025-11-17 Analyst: Substrate Data Curation