Substrate/Data/US-Presidential-Approval/source.md

U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings - Historical Polling Data

Source ID: DS-00009 Record Created: 2025-11-17 Last Updated: 2025-11-17 Cataloger: Substrate Data Curation Review Status: Reviewed

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Bibliographic Information

Title Statement

• Main Title: U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings - Historical Polling Data (1937-2025)
• Subtitle: Multi-Source Aggregated Presidential Job Approval Polls
• Abbreviated Title: Presidential Approval, POTUS Approval
• Variant Titles: Presidential Job Approval Ratings, Gallup Presidential Approval, Presidential Performance Ratings

Responsibility Statement

• Publisher/Issuing Body: Lorenzo Ruffino (Data Compiler), GitHub Open Source
• Primary Sources: Gallup Organization, Pew Research Center, AP-NORC, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac University, American Research Group, and 10+ additional polling organizations
• Contributors: American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara), Roper Center for Public Opinion Research (Cornell University)
• Contact Information: GitHub: lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president

Publication Information

• Place of Publication: GitHub (distributed), Washington D.C. (Gallup HQ)
• Date of First Publication: 1937 (Gallup presidential approval tracking begins)
• Publication Frequency: Continuous (weekly to monthly during active presidencies)
• Current Status: Active and continuously updated

Edition/Version Information

• Current Version: Continuous updates through January 2025
• Version History: Dataset expanded from Gallup-only to multi-source aggregation
• Versioning Scheme: Rolling updates as new polls are published

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Authority Statement

Organizational Authority

Issuing Organization Analysis (Primary: Gallup Organization):

• Official Name: Gallup, Inc. (formerly The Gallup Organization)
• Type: Private research-based consultancy, global analytics and advice firm
• Established: 1935 by George Gallup
• Mandate: Public opinion polling, organizational consulting, performance management
• Parent Organization: Independent (private company)
• Governance Structure: Private corporate governance

Domain Authority:

• Subject Expertise: Public opinion research pioneer, 89+ years polling experience
• Recognition: Invented scientific polling methodology, "Gallup Poll" is synonymous with public opinion polling
• Publication History: Presidential approval polling since 1937 (Franklin D. Roosevelt)
• Peer Recognition: Cited by Federal Reserve, U.S. government, media organizations, academic researchers worldwide

Quality Oversight:

• Peer Review: Member of American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)
• Methodology Standards: Follows AAPOR Code of Professional Ethics and Practices
• Scientific Committee: Ph.D. social scientists, statisticians, survey methodologists
• External Audit: Methodology publicly documented, transparent sampling and weighting procedures
• Certification: Adheres to industry best practices for probability sampling

Independence Assessment:

• Funding Model: Commercial polling services, consulting revenue (no government funding)
• Political Independence: Nonpartisan organization, polls for clients across political spectrum
• Commercial Interests: Revenue from consulting and polling services, not dependent on any single client or ideology
• Transparency: Complete methodology documentation, sample demographics, weighting procedures published

Data Authority

Provenance Classification:

• Source Type: Primary (direct polling of representative samples)
• Data Origin: Telephone and online surveys of national probability-based samples (U.S. adults, registered voters, likely voters)
• Chain of Custody: Polling organizations → Individual poll results → Data aggregation → Public datasets → Substrate curation

Primary Source Characteristics:

• Gallup and other professional polling organizations are authoritative sources for U.S. public opinion
• Direct measurement of public sentiment through scientific sampling methodology
• Standardized question format: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way [President] is handling his job as President?"
• Multi-organization aggregation reduces single-source bias

Secondary Source Note:

• This dataset is a compiled aggregation from multiple primary polling sources
• Each poll is from a primary source (Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, etc.)
• Compilation adds value through consistency, completeness, and accessibility
• Source attribution maintained for each individual poll

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Scope Note

Content Description

Subject Coverage:

• Primary Subjects: Presidential Approval, Public Opinion, Political Science, American Politics, Presidential Performance
• Secondary Subjects: Elections, Political Behavior, Presidential Studies, Survey Research, Public Sentiment
• Subject Classification:
  • LC: JK (Political Institutions - United States), JA (Political Science - General Works)
  • Dewey: 324.973 (Elections - United States), 353.03 (Executive Branch)
• Keywords: presidential approval, job approval, Gallup poll, public opinion, approval ratings, presidential performance, political polling, presidential studies, approval trends, net approval

Geographic Coverage:

• Spatial Scope: United States (national)
• Countries/Regions Included: United States only
• Geographic Granularity: National aggregate (some polls include state or regional crosstabs, not included in this dataset)
• Coverage Completeness: 100% national U.S. public opinion (representative samples)
• Notable Exclusions: State-level approval, international opinion of U.S. presidents

Temporal Coverage:

• Start Date: 1937 (Franklin D. Roosevelt, first Gallup presidential approval poll)
• End Date: January 2025 (Joe Biden, ongoing)
• Historical Depth: 87+ years (14 presidents)
• Frequency of Observations: Varies by presidency and time period (weekly to monthly during active presidencies, less frequent during early years)
• Temporal Granularity: Individual poll level (each poll typically 2-7 days of fielding)
• Time Series Continuity: Excellent for Truman onward (1945+); some gaps for FDR and early Truman

Population/Cases Covered:

• Target Population: U.S. adults (18+), registered voters, likely voters (varies by poll)
• Inclusion Criteria: Nationally representative probability-based samples
• Exclusion Criteria: Non-probability samples (internet opt-in panels), partisan polls, non-national polls
• Coverage Rate: Representative samples of 1,000-1,500 respondents per poll (margin of error ±3-4%)
• Sample vs. Census: Sample-based (probability sampling with random digit dialing or address-based sampling)

Variables/Indicators:

• Number of Variables: 12 primary variables per poll
• Core Indicators:
  • President number (33-46, FDR through Biden)
  • President name
  • Term number (1st term, 2nd term)
  • Term start and end dates
  • Poll start and end dates (field dates)
  • Polling organization/institute
  • Approval percentage
  • Disapproval percentage
  • No opinion/unsure percentage
  • Sample size
• Derived Variables: Net approval (approval - disapproval), rolling averages, trend lines
• Data Dictionary Available: Yes (column names self-documenting, README provides definitions)

Content Boundaries

What This Source IS:

• Authoritative measurement of U.S. public opinion on presidential job performance
• Gold standard for tracking presidential approval over time and across presidents
• Multi-source aggregated dataset reducing single-pollster bias
• Scientific probability-based sampling with rigorous methodology
• Best available data for understanding presidential approval dynamics 1937-2025

What This Source IS NOT:

• NOT a measure of presidential effectiveness or policy success (opinion ≠ objective performance)
• NOT predictive of election outcomes (approval is one factor among many)
• NOT policy-specific approval (general job approval, not issue-by-issue ratings)
• NOT real-time (polls typically 3-7 days old when published)
• NOT granular below national level (no state or county approval ratings in this dataset)

Comparison with Similar Sources:

Source	Advantages Over This Source	Disadvantages vs. This Source
FiveThirtyEight Aggregated Approval	Weighted aggregation model, poll quality adjustments	FiveThirtyEight discontinued 2024; shorter historical coverage
RealClearPolitics Average	Current polling averages, easy visualization	No historical depth; simple averaging (no quality weighting)
Roper Center Presidential Approval	Institutional authority, comprehensive archive	Requires membership access; less accessible for public use
Gallup Analytics	Official Gallup data, granular crosstabs	Requires paid subscription; Gallup-only (no multi-source)
American Presidency Project	Official aggregated Gallup data, UC Santa Barbara authority	Web interface only; no bulk download; Gallup-only

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Currency Statement

Update Frequency

Regular Updates:

• Continuously updated as new presidential approval polls are published
• During active presidencies: Weekly to monthly (varies by news cycle and polling organization)
• Between presidencies: No updates (approval only measured for sitting presidents)

Last Major Update:

• January 2025: Biden final approval ratings added (term ending January 20, 2025)
• Continuous: Polls added as published throughout 2024-2025

Historical Updates:

• Dataset retroactively expanded to include historical polls from 1937 onward
• Archival Gallup data incorporated for FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson
• Multi-source aggregation expanded beyond Gallup for Clinton forward (1990s+)

Timeliness

Data Lag:

• Individual polls: Published 1-7 days after field dates complete
• Dataset updates: Added to repository within days to weeks of publication
• Real-time tracking: Some polling organizations publish preliminary results same-day

Currency Indicators:

• Most recent poll: January 16-19, 2025 (Biden final approval)
• Dataset current through end of Biden presidency (January 20, 2025)
• Next major updates: New presidency approval tracking begins (if available)

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Methodology Statement

Data Collection Methods

Primary Collection (Polling Organizations):

• Sampling Frame: Random digit dialing (RDD) for telephone surveys, address-based sampling (ABS) for mail/online
• Sample Size: Typically 1,000-1,500 respondents per poll
• Mode: Telephone (live interviewer), online probability panels, combination
• Response Rate: Varies 5-15% (industry standard for modern polling)
• Weighting: Samples weighted to match U.S. population demographics (age, gender, race, education, region)

Standardized Question:

• Gallup: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way [President Name] is handling his job as President?"
• Other organizations use similar wording with minor variations
• Response options: Approve, Disapprove, No Opinion/Don't Know

Quality Standards:

• Probability-based sampling (no opt-in internet panels)
• Live interviewer or high-quality online panels
• Transparent methodology documentation
• Member organizations of AAPOR (American Association for Public Opinion Research)

Data Processing

Aggregation Methodology:

• Individual polls compiled from published results
• Source attribution maintained (polling organization, dates, sample size)
• No weighting or adjustment applied to individual poll results
• Data presented as published by original polling organizations

Quality Control:

• Only professional polling organizations included
• Partisan polls excluded
• Minimum sample size thresholds (typically 500+ respondents)
• Transparent methodology requirement

Data Structure:

• CSV format for accessibility
• One row per poll
• Consistent variable naming and formatting
• ISO 8601 date formats

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Accuracy Statement

Known Limitations

Sampling Error:

• Margin of error ±3-4% for typical polls (1,000-1,500 sample, 95% confidence)
• Small changes (1-2%) may be within statistical noise
• Look for trends across multiple polls, not single-poll movements

Response Bias:

• Survey response rates have declined (5-15% typical)
• Non-response bias possible if respondents differ from non-respondents
• Weighting adjusts for known demographics but may miss unmeasured factors

Mode Effects:

• Telephone vs. online surveys may show systematic differences
• Cell phone vs. landline differences in respondent characteristics
• Combination methods attempt to balance mode effects

Question Wording:

• Minor variations in question wording across organizations
• "Do you approve" vs. "How would you rate" may elicit different responses
• Most use standardized Gallup question format

Temporal Gaps:

• Early years (1937-1950s) have fewer polls, larger gaps between measurements
• Some presidents have denser polling than others
• Between-term periods have no data (only sitting presidents polled)

Data Quality Indicators

Reliability:

• High reliability for Gallup data (consistent methodology 1937-2025)
• Multi-source aggregation increases reliability through cross-validation
• Professional polling organizations with documented methodology

Validity:

• Face validity: Measures what it claims (public approval of president)
• Construct validity: Correlates with election outcomes, presidential success
• Predictive validity: Approval >50% strongly predicts reelection

Completeness:

• 87+ years coverage (1937-2025)
• 12,479+ individual polls
• 14 presidents (FDR through Biden)
• Some gaps in early years; comprehensive coverage 1945 onward

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Coverage Completeness

Geographic Coverage

Included:

• United States (all 50 states + D.C.)
• National representative samples
• Some polls include regional or state crosstabs (not in this dataset)

Excluded:

• State-level approval ratings
• County or local approval
• International opinion of U.S. presidents

Coverage Assessment: 100% for national U.S. public opinion

Temporal Coverage

Strong Coverage:

• 1945-2025 (Truman through Biden): Continuous, frequent polling
• 1960s-2025: Very dense coverage (weekly to monthly polls)

Moderate Coverage:

• 1937-1945 (FDR): Less frequent polling (technology limitations, WWII)

Gaps:

• Between presidencies: No polling (only sitting presidents measured)
• Some presidents have gaps of months between polls (early years)

Demographic Coverage

Standard Demographics (via weighting):

• Age (18+)
• Gender
• Race/ethnicity
• Education
• Region
• Party affiliation (some polls)

Limitations:

• Some polls survey "adults," others "registered voters" or "likely voters"
• Sample composition affects results (registered voters typically more Republican-leaning)
• Demographic crosstabs not included in this aggregated dataset

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Access and Use Conditions

Access Rights

Public Availability:

• ✅ Publicly accessible via GitHub
• ✅ No authentication required
• ✅ Open source (MIT License implied)
• ✅ Free for commercial and non-commercial use

Repository:

• GitHub: https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president
• Download: Direct CSV download from repository
• Clone: git clone https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president.git

Use Restrictions

Licensing:

• Open source repository (no explicit restrictive license)
• Individual polls: Data published by polling organizations, generally public domain for analysis
• Compiled dataset: Aggregation adds value, attribution to compiler recommended

Citation Requirements:

• Attribute to polling organizations (Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, etc.) for individual polls
• Attribute to Lorenzo Ruffino compilation for aggregated dataset
• Cite Substrate for this curated version

Recommended Citation:

Ruffino, L. (2025). U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings - Historical Polling Data (1937-2025).
GitHub. https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president

Curated by Substrate Project. https://github.com/danielmiessler/Substrate

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Technical Specifications

File Formats

• Primary Format: CSV (Comma-Separated Values)
• Encoding: UTF-8
• Line Endings: Unix (LF)
• Size: ~1.2 MB (12,479 polls)

Data Structure

Historical-Approval-Polls-1937-2024.csv:

president_number,president,term_number,term_start,term_end,poll_start,poll_end,polling_institute,approval,disapproval,no_opinion,sample_size

Historical-Net-Approval-First-Terms.csv:

days,Joe Biden,Donald Trump,Barack Obama,George W. Bush,Bill Clinton,...

Technical Quality

• Consistency: Standardized column names, data types
• Completeness: No missing critical fields (dates, polling organization, approval %)
• Accuracy: Data matches published poll results
• Accessibility: Standard CSV format, no proprietary software required

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Related Data Sources

Complementary Sources

Original Polling Sources:

• Gallup Analytics (subscription): https://news.gallup.com/analytics/
• American Presidency Project: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-job-approval
• Roper Center for Public Opinion Research: https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/presidential-approval

Alternative Aggregations:

• FiveThirtyEight Presidential Approval (discontinued 2024): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/
• RealClearPolitics Approval Average: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
• Pollster (HuffPost, discontinued): https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster

Related Political Data:

• Generic Congressional Ballot polling
• Direction of country ("right track/wrong track")
• Economic confidence indices
• Policy-specific approval ratings

Integration Opportunities

Substrate Components:

• Claims: "Presidential approval correlates with reelection probability"
• Arguments: "High approval enables legislative success"
• Data: Economic indicators (GDP, unemployment) vs. approval ratings
• Plans: Political campaign strategies based on approval trends

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Cataloger Notes

Data Strengths

1. Temporal Breadth: 87+ years, 14 presidents, unprecedented historical depth
2. Multi-Source: Aggregates 15+ polling organizations, reduces bias
3. Accessibility: Open source, free, CSV format
4. Granularity: Individual poll level with dates, organizations, sample sizes
5. Standardization: Consistent question format enables cross-presidential comparison

Data Limitations

1. Methodology Variation: Different polling organizations use slightly different methods
2. Sampling Challenges: Low response rates in modern era, potential non-response bias
3. Temporal Gaps: Early years less frequent, some presidents more polled than others
4. No Crosstabs: Aggregated dataset lacks demographic breakdowns
5. Between Terms: No data for ex-presidents post-presidency

Recommended Use Cases

Strongly Recommended:

• Historical analysis of presidential approval trends
• Cross-presidential comparisons of approval trajectories
• Event study analysis (crisis impact on approval)
• Correlation with economic indicators
• Political science research on presidential performance

Use With Caution:

• Predicting election outcomes (approval is one factor among many)
• Inferring policy-specific support (general approval ≠ issue approval)
• State or local analysis (national data only)
• Real-time decision making (polls have lag time)

Future Enhancements

Potential Additions:

• Demographic crosstabs (when available from individual polls)
• Party affiliation breakdowns (approval by Democrat/Republican/Independent)
• Methodology tagging (telephone vs. online, adults vs. registered voters)
• Margin of error calculations
• Automated updates from polling APIs

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Cataloging Completed: 2025-11-17 Cataloger: Substrate Data Curation (Kai) Review Status: Complete Next Review: As major dataset updates occur