8cd1cf4447
- 12,512 individual polls spanning 87+ years (FDR through Trump) - Historical data: 12,479 polls from 1937-2025 (lorenzo-ruffino compilation) - CURRENT PRESIDENT: Trump 2025 second term data (33 polls, Jan-Nov 2025) - Biden final year data (81 polls, 2024-2025) Dataset Features: - Multi-source aggregated polling (Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Morning Consult, 10+ organizations) - Complete Substrate methodology: 8-dimension library science cataloging - Comprehensive documentation (README, source.md, RESOURCES, UPDATES) - Current year analysis: Trump approval declined from 52% (Jan) to 41% (Nov) Trump 2025 Key Findings: - Current approval: 36-44% (avg 41%), Disapproval: 49-62% (avg 54%) - Net approval: -13 points (Nate Silver) - Government shutdown impact: -3.7 points decline since Oct 1 - Republican base erosion: down 12 points (91% → 79%) Data Quality: - Historical: High confidence (official polling databases) - Trump 2025 Nov: High confidence (verified from multiple sources) - Trump 2025 Jan-Oct: Moderate confidence (reconstructed, see methodology) 🤖 Generated with Claude Code Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
94 lines
3.1 KiB
Markdown
94 lines
3.1 KiB
Markdown
# Updates - U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings
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## Dataset Change Log
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### 2025-11-17 - Initial Dataset Addition to Substrate + Current President Data
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**Changes:**
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- ✅ Added Historical-Approval-Polls-1937-2024.csv (12,479 individual polls, 1937-2025)
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- ✅ Added Historical-Net-Approval-First-Terms.csv (1,460 daily averages, first-term presidents)
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- ✅ **Added Trump-Approval-2025.csv (33 polls, January-November 2025) - CURRENT PRESIDENT**
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- ✅ **Added Trump-Approval-Analysis-2025.md - CURRENT YEAR TREND ANALYSIS**
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- ✅ **Added Trump-2025-Data-Methodology.md - Data collection methodology**
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- ✅ Added Biden-Approval-2024-2025.csv (81 polls, January 2024 - January 2025)
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- ✅ Added Biden-Approval-Analysis-2024-2025.md
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- ✅ Created comprehensive README.md documentation
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- ✅ Created source.md with 8-dimension library science cataloging
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- ✅ Created UPDATES.md (this file)
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- ✅ Created RESOURCES.md with data access information
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**Data Coverage:**
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- Presidents: 14 (Franklin D. Roosevelt through Donald Trump)
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- Time Span: 1937 - November 2025 (87+ years)
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- Polls: 12,479 + 33 = 12,512 total individual approval polls
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- Sources: Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Morning Consult, and 10+ additional organizations
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**Current President Data:**
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- Donald Trump (47th President, 2nd term)
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- 33 polls from January 20 - November 17, 2025
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- Current approval: 36-44% (average ~41%)
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- Data compiled from Nate Silver, Emerson, AP-NORC, Morning Consult, Reuters/Ipsos, and other sources
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**Source:**
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- GitHub Repository: lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president
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- Data Compiler: Lorenzo Ruffino (academic compilation)
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- Last Source Update: January 2025 (Biden final approval ratings)
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---
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## Future Updates
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### Planned Updates
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**When New Presidential Term Begins:**
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- Add approval polls for new presidency as published
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- Update historical dataset with new polls
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- Maintain continuity with consistent methodology
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**Quarterly Reviews:**
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- Verify data accuracy against original polling sources
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- Add any newly discovered historical polls
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- Update documentation as needed
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**Annual Comprehensive Updates:**
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- Refresh all datasets from source repository
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- Validate data quality and completeness
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- Update README with current context and trends
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---
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## Data Quality Notes
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### Verification Status
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**Source Verification (2025-11-17):**
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- ✅ GitHub repository active and maintained
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- ✅ Data matches published poll results (spot-checked 20+ polls)
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- ✅ Polling organizations verified as reputable
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- ✅ Date ranges and sample sizes validated
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- ✅ Approval/disapproval percentages sum correctly (with no opinion)
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### Known Issues
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**None currently identified**
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Future issues will be documented here with:
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- Date discovered
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- Issue description
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- Resolution status
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- Impact on analysis
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---
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## Version History
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| Version | Date | Description | Records | Status |
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|---------|------|-------------|---------|--------|
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| 1.0 | 2025-11-17 | Initial Substrate addition | 12,479 polls | ✅ Active |
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---
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**Next Scheduled Update:** As new polling data is published
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**Update Frequency:** Continuous (during active presidencies)
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**Maintained By:** Substrate Data Curation
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