9a181ae43b
Added SUMMARY.md executive summaries to all 7 datasets with: - 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE section at top - 12-word one-liners for quick reference - Confidence levels and caveats - Extensive authoritative linking - Alternative Estimates sections where applicable - Changelogs for revision tracking Updated Data/README.md with: - Quick reference table of all datasets - Full schema documentation - Confidence level guidelines - Anti-patterns to avoid Datasets standardized: - Knowledge-Worker-Global-Salaries (gold standard) - US-GDP - US-Inflation - US-Presidential-Approval - Bay-Area-COVID-Wastewater - US-Common-Metrics - Pulitzer-Prize-Winners 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
193 lines
7.1 KiB
Markdown
193 lines
7.1 KiB
Markdown
# U.S. GDP: Executive Summary
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---
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## 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE
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| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
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|--------|-------|------------|--------------|
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| **U.S. Real GDP (Q2 2025)** | **$23.77 trillion** | 99% | October 2025 |
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| **GDP Growth Rate (QoQ)** | **3.8%** | 99% | October 2025 |
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| **Annual Real GDP (2024)** | **$23.36 trillion** | 99% | October 2025 |
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**One-liner:** U.S. real GDP is $23.77 trillion (Q2 2025), growing at 3.8% quarterly.
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**Caveat:** GDP figures are revised three times after initial release; final revisions may adjust by ±0.5%.
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---
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## The Big Picture
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[Gross Domestic Product (GDP)](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) is the most comprehensive measure of economic output—the total value of all goods and services produced within the United States. The [Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)](https://www.bea.gov/), part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is the authoritative source for this data.
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Real GDP (inflation-adjusted, [chained 2017 dollars](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/520)) enables valid comparisons across time by removing the effects of price changes. This dataset covers:
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- **Quarterly data**: Q1 1947 – Q2 2025 (314 observations)
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- **Annual data**: 1929 – 2024 (96 observations)
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---
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## Why This Number Matters
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GDP is the benchmark metric for:
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- **Economic health**: Is the economy growing or shrinking?
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- **Policy decisions**: Federal Reserve interest rates, fiscal policy
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- **Business strategy**: Market sizing, demand forecasting, investment planning
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- **International comparison**: How the U.S. economy compares globally
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A [1% change in GDP growth](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA) represents approximately $240 billion in annual economic output.
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---
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## Current Data Highlights
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### Recent Performance
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| Period | Real GDP | Growth Rate | Source |
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|--------|----------|-------------|--------|
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| Q2 2025 | [$23.77T](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1) | +3.8% (QoQ) | [BEA](https://www.bea.gov/) |
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| Q1 2025 | $23.55T | Baseline | [BEA](https://www.bea.gov/) |
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| Full Year 2024 | [$23.36T](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPCA) | +2.8% (YoY) | [BEA](https://www.bea.gov/) |
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### Historical Milestones
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| Year | Real GDP | Context |
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|------|----------|---------|
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| 1929 | $1.19T | Pre-Depression peak |
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| 1933 | $0.88T | Depression trough (-26%) |
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| 1947 | $2.18T | Post-WWII era begins (quarterly data starts) |
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| 2000 | $13.13T | Dot-com peak |
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| 2009 | $14.42T | Great Recession trough |
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| 2020 Q2 | $17.26T | COVID trough (-31.4% annualized) |
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| 2025 Q2 | $23.77T | Current |
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---
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## How the Number Is Calculated
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The BEA uses the [expenditure approach](https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook):
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**GDP = C + I + G + (X − M)**
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| Component | Description | Share of GDP |
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|-----------|-------------|--------------|
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| **C** | Personal consumption expenditures | ~68% |
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| **I** | Gross private domestic investment | ~18% |
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| **G** | Government consumption & investment | ~17% |
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| **(X-M)** | Net exports (exports minus imports) | ~-3% |
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### Real vs. Nominal
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- **Nominal GDP**: Measured in current prices (~$29T in 2024)
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- **Real GDP** (this dataset): Adjusted for inflation using [chained 2017 dollars](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/520)
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- Real GDP enables valid comparisons across time periods
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---
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## Revision Process
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GDP is revised multiple times as more complete data becomes available:
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| Release | Timing | Typical Revision |
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|---------|--------|------------------|
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| **Advance Estimate** | ~30 days after quarter end | Initial estimate |
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| **Second Estimate** | ~60 days after quarter end | ±0.3-0.5 pp |
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| **Third Estimate** | ~90 days after quarter end | ±0.1-0.2 pp |
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| **Annual Revision** | September (5+ years) | May revise history |
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**Bottom line**: Current-quarter GDP is a provisional estimate. Use third estimates or annual revisions for precision.
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---
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## Data Sources
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| Source | What It Provides | Link |
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|--------|-----------------|------|
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| [Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)](https://www.bea.gov/) | Official U.S. GDP (primary authority) | [GDP Data](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp) |
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| [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/) | Easy API access to BEA data | [GDPC1](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1), [GDPCA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPCA) |
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**FRED Series IDs:**
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- `GDPC1` - Real GDP, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
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- `GDPCA` - Real GDP, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted
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---
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## Confidence Assessment
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| Component | Confidence | Explanation |
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|-----------|------------|-------------|
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| **Current Quarterly GDP** | 95% | Advance estimate; will be revised |
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| **Third-Estimate GDP** | 99% | Final quarterly revision; highly reliable |
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| **Historical GDP (5+ years)** | 99%+ | Fully revised; official government statistic |
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This is among the highest-confidence economic data available—produced by the U.S. government using rigorous methodology with full transparency.
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---
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## Known Limitations
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1. **Revision lag**: Current-quarter figures are provisional estimates
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2. **Base year**: Uses 2017 as reference (updated periodically by BEA)
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3. **Pre-1947**: Quarterly data not available before 1947
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4. **Seasonal adjustment**: May mask genuine short-term fluctuations
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5. **Real economy**: GDP measures production, not welfare or sustainability
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---
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## How to Access the Data
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### Quick Access
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```bash
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# View quarterly data (1947-2025)
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cat Real-GDP-Quarterly-1947-2025.csv
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# View annual data (1929-2024)
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cat Real-GDP-Annual-1929-2024.csv
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```
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### Update to Latest
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```bash
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# Download latest quarterly data from FRED
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curl -L "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=GDPC1" -o Real-GDP-Quarterly.csv
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# Download latest annual data from FRED
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curl -L "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=GDPCA" -o Real-GDP-Annual.csv
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```
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---
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## Supporting Documentation
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| Document | Description |
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|----------|-------------|
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| [US-GDP-1929-2025.md](./US-GDP-1929-2025.md) | Full dataset documentation with historical context |
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| [source.md](./source.md) | Detailed methodology and provenance |
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| [Real-GDP-Quarterly-1947-2025.csv](./Real-GDP-Quarterly-1947-2025.csv) | Quarterly data (314 observations) |
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| [Real-GDP-Annual-1929-2024.csv](./Real-GDP-Annual-1929-2024.csv) | Annual data (96 observations) |
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---
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## Research Metadata
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| Attribute | Value |
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|-----------|-------|
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| **Research Date** | October 2025 |
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| **Researcher** | Kai (10-agent parallel synthesis) |
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| **Method** | Multi-source corroboration via Perplexity, Claude, Gemini |
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| **Confidence Level** | 99% (official government statistic) |
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| **Known Gaps** | Pre-1947 quarterly data unavailable |
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---
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## Changelog
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| Date | Change | Reason |
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|------|--------|--------|
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| **December 2025** | Added SUMMARY.md with executive overview | Standardizing Substrate datasets to "Answer First" schema |
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| **October 2025** | Initial dataset creation | Comprehensive U.S. GDP data collection |
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---
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## External Resources
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- [BEA GDP FAQ](https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/520) - Methodology questions
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- [BEA NIPA Handbook](https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook) - Full methodology
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- [BEA Release Schedule](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule) - Upcoming GDP releases
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- [FRED GDP Series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/18) - All GDP-related data
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