9a181ae43b
Added SUMMARY.md executive summaries to all 7 datasets with: - 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE section at top - 12-word one-liners for quick reference - Confidence levels and caveats - Extensive authoritative linking - Alternative Estimates sections where applicable - Changelogs for revision tracking Updated Data/README.md with: - Quick reference table of all datasets - Full schema documentation - Confidence level guidelines - Anti-patterns to avoid Datasets standardized: - Knowledge-Worker-Global-Salaries (gold standard) - US-GDP - US-Inflation - US-Presidential-Approval - Bay-Area-COVID-Wastewater - US-Common-Metrics - Pulitzer-Prize-Winners 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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U.S. GDP: Executive Summary
🎯 BEST ESTIMATE
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Real GDP (Q2 2025) | $23.77 trillion | 99% | October 2025 |
| GDP Growth Rate (QoQ) | 3.8% | 99% | October 2025 |
| Annual Real GDP (2024) | $23.36 trillion | 99% | October 2025 |
One-liner: U.S. real GDP is $23.77 trillion (Q2 2025), growing at 3.8% quarterly.
Caveat: GDP figures are revised three times after initial release; final revisions may adjust by ±0.5%.
The Big Picture
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most comprehensive measure of economic output—the total value of all goods and services produced within the United States. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is the authoritative source for this data.
Real GDP (inflation-adjusted, chained 2017 dollars) enables valid comparisons across time by removing the effects of price changes. This dataset covers:
- Quarterly data: Q1 1947 – Q2 2025 (314 observations)
- Annual data: 1929 – 2024 (96 observations)
Why This Number Matters
GDP is the benchmark metric for:
- Economic health: Is the economy growing or shrinking?
- Policy decisions: Federal Reserve interest rates, fiscal policy
- Business strategy: Market sizing, demand forecasting, investment planning
- International comparison: How the U.S. economy compares globally
A 1% change in GDP growth represents approximately $240 billion in annual economic output.
Current Data Highlights
Recent Performance
| Period | Real GDP | Growth Rate | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $23.77T | +3.8% (QoQ) | BEA |
| Q1 2025 | $23.55T | Baseline | BEA |
| Full Year 2024 | $23.36T | +2.8% (YoY) | BEA |
Historical Milestones
| Year | Real GDP | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 1929 | $1.19T | Pre-Depression peak |
| 1933 | $0.88T | Depression trough (-26%) |
| 1947 | $2.18T | Post-WWII era begins (quarterly data starts) |
| 2000 | $13.13T | Dot-com peak |
| 2009 | $14.42T | Great Recession trough |
| 2020 Q2 | $17.26T | COVID trough (-31.4% annualized) |
| 2025 Q2 | $23.77T | Current |
How the Number Is Calculated
The BEA uses the expenditure approach:
GDP = C + I + G + (X − M)
| Component | Description | Share of GDP |
|---|---|---|
| C | Personal consumption expenditures | ~68% |
| I | Gross private domestic investment | ~18% |
| G | Government consumption & investment | ~17% |
| (X-M) | Net exports (exports minus imports) | ~-3% |
Real vs. Nominal
- Nominal GDP: Measured in current prices (~$29T in 2024)
- Real GDP (this dataset): Adjusted for inflation using chained 2017 dollars
- Real GDP enables valid comparisons across time periods
Revision Process
GDP is revised multiple times as more complete data becomes available:
| Release | Timing | Typical Revision |
|---|---|---|
| Advance Estimate | ~30 days after quarter end | Initial estimate |
| Second Estimate | ~60 days after quarter end | ±0.3-0.5 pp |
| Third Estimate | ~90 days after quarter end | ±0.1-0.2 pp |
| Annual Revision | September (5+ years) | May revise history |
Bottom line: Current-quarter GDP is a provisional estimate. Use third estimates or annual revisions for precision.
Data Sources
| Source | What It Provides | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) | Official U.S. GDP (primary authority) | GDP Data |
| FRED | Easy API access to BEA data | GDPC1, GDPCA |
FRED Series IDs:
GDPC1- Real GDP, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateGDPCA- Real GDP, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Confidence Assessment
| Component | Confidence | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Current Quarterly GDP | 95% | Advance estimate; will be revised |
| Third-Estimate GDP | 99% | Final quarterly revision; highly reliable |
| Historical GDP (5+ years) | 99%+ | Fully revised; official government statistic |
This is among the highest-confidence economic data available—produced by the U.S. government using rigorous methodology with full transparency.
Known Limitations
- Revision lag: Current-quarter figures are provisional estimates
- Base year: Uses 2017 as reference (updated periodically by BEA)
- Pre-1947: Quarterly data not available before 1947
- Seasonal adjustment: May mask genuine short-term fluctuations
- Real economy: GDP measures production, not welfare or sustainability
How to Access the Data
Quick Access
# View quarterly data (1947-2025)
cat Real-GDP-Quarterly-1947-2025.csv
# View annual data (1929-2024)
cat Real-GDP-Annual-1929-2024.csv
Update to Latest
# Download latest quarterly data from FRED
curl -L "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=GDPC1" -o Real-GDP-Quarterly.csv
# Download latest annual data from FRED
curl -L "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=GDPCA" -o Real-GDP-Annual.csv
Supporting Documentation
| Document | Description |
|---|---|
| US-GDP-1929-2025.md | Full dataset documentation with historical context |
| source.md | Detailed methodology and provenance |
| Real-GDP-Quarterly-1947-2025.csv | Quarterly data (314 observations) |
| Real-GDP-Annual-1929-2024.csv | Annual data (96 observations) |
Research Metadata
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Research Date | October 2025 |
| Researcher | Kai (10-agent parallel synthesis) |
| Method | Multi-source corroboration via Perplexity, Claude, Gemini |
| Confidence Level | 99% (official government statistic) |
| Known Gaps | Pre-1947 quarterly data unavailable |
Changelog
| Date | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | Added SUMMARY.md with executive overview | Standardizing Substrate datasets to "Answer First" schema |
| October 2025 | Initial dataset creation | Comprehensive U.S. GDP data collection |
External Resources
- BEA GDP FAQ - Methodology questions
- BEA NIPA Handbook - Full methodology
- BEA Release Schedule - Upcoming GDP releases
- FRED GDP Series - All GDP-related data