0698daea69
- Add DE-Platform-Media (DS-00015), DE-Epistemic-Competence (DS-00016), DE-Social-Mobility (DS-00017) with source stubs - Update DE-Democracy-Metrics, DE-Federal-Budget, DE-Lobby-Transparency, DE-Parliament-Activity, Knowledge-Worker salaries - Add get-de-digital script for digital economy data retrieval - Update de-plan1-sven with revised strategy sections - Rename flat-dir index files to .md (Arguments, Claims, Problems, Values) - Append new entries to Data/UPDATES.md Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
166 lines
6.9 KiB
Markdown
166 lines
6.9 KiB
Markdown
# DE Democracy Metrics
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**Last Updated:** 2026-04-18
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**Update Method:** Manual — annual reports, no live API
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**Coverage:** 7 core democracy health indicators
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---
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## 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE
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| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
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|--------|-------|------------|--------------|
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| **Democracy Satisfaction** | **49%** very/fairly satisfied | 75% | 2024 |
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| **Voter Turnout (Bundestagswahl)** | **77.8%** | 99% | 2025-02-23 |
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| **Press Freedom Index (RSF)** | **Rank 10 / Score 79.1** | 95% | 2024 |
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| **Trust in Bundestag** | **~40%** | 70% | 2025-Q1 |
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| **V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index** | **0.82** (scale 0–1) | 85% | 2024 |
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| **EIU Democracy Index** | **8.80 / 10 — Rank ~15** | 80% | 2023 |
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| **Far-Right Vote Share (AfD)** | **20.8%** | 99% | 2025-02-23 |
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| **"Wütende" Population Segment** | **~30%** | 65% | 2024 |
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**One-liner:** German democracy is stable but eroding — 49% satisfied, 21% voting far-right.
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**Caveat:** Democracy satisfaction and trust figures vary significantly across surveys and question framing.
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---
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## Quick Context
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Germany's democratic institutions remain functional, but key indicators signal structural stress: far-right vote shares have roughly doubled since 2017, institutional trust is declining across all major parties, and roughly a third of the population holds attitudes receptive to authoritarian framings (More in Common 2024). These are not post-election fluctuations but trend data.
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---
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## Methodology Summary
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**Approach:** Annual aggregation from authoritative institutional sources — V-Dem, RSF, Bertelsmann, ARD-DeutschlandTREND, official election data.
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**Sources:**
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- V-Dem Institute: Liberal Democracy Index (annual)
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- Reporters Without Borders / Reporter ohne Grenzen (OR-00003): Press Freedom Index (annual)
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- More in Common: "Die andere deutsche Teilung" (2024)
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- Bertelsmann Stiftung: Democracy Report / Transformation Index
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- ARD-DeutschlandTREND: monthly tracking poll
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- Bundeswahlleiter: official election results
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**Definition Used:** Democratic health as multi-dimensional — not just elections but trust, press freedom, participation quality, and societal polarization.
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---
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## Detailed Findings
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### Electoral Participation
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| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
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|--------|-------|--------|--------|
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| Bundestagswahl 2025 voter turnout | 77.8% | 2025-02-23 | Bundeswahlleiter |
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| Bundestagswahl 2021 voter turnout | 76.6% | 2021-09-26 | Bundeswahlleiter |
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| Europawahl 2024 turnout | 64.8% | 2024-06-09 | Bundeswahlleiter |
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| AfD vote share 2025 | 20.8% | 2025-02-23 | Bundeswahlleiter |
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| AfD vote share 2021 | 10.3% | 2021-09-26 | Bundeswahlleiter |
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### Democratic Quality
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| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
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|--------|-------|--------|--------|
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| V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index | 0.82 | 2024 | V-Dem Institute |
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| V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index | 0.88 | 2024 | V-Dem Institute |
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| EIU Democracy Index Score | 8.80 / 10 | 2023 | The Economist Intelligence Unit |
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| EIU Democracy Index Rank | ~#15 (Full Democracy) | 2023 | The Economist Intelligence Unit |
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| RSF Press Freedom Rank | #10 | 2024 | Reporters Without Borders |
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| RSF Press Freedom Score | 79.1 / 100 | 2024 | Reporters Without Borders |
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### Trust and Satisfaction
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| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
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|--------|-------|--------|--------|
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| Democracy satisfaction (very/fairly) | ~49% | 2024 | Bertelsmann / ALLBUS |
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| Trust in Bundestag | ~40% | Q1 2025 | ARD-DeutschlandTREND |
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| Trust in Federal Government | ~35% | Q1 2025 | ARD-DeutschlandTREND |
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| Trust in parties in general | ~20% | 2024 | Eurobarometer |
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### Societal Polarization (More in Common 2024)
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| Segment | Share | Characteristics |
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|---------|-------|-----------------|
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| Offene (Open) | ~22% | Pro-democratic, cosmopolitan |
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| Involvierte (Engaged) | ~18% | Institutionally integrated |
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| Etablierte (Established) | ~19% | Satisfied with status quo |
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| Unsichtbare Mitte (Invisible Middle) | ~13% | Disengaged, no strong political identity |
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| Frustrierte (Frustrated) | ~18% | Disenchanted but not authoritarian |
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| Wütende (Angry) | ~10% | Authoritarian-receptive, conspiracy-prone |
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*Note: "Wütende" at ~10% here is the hard core; the ~30% figure in BEST ESTIMATE reflects all authoritarian-receptive attitudes (Wütende + significant share of Frustrierte).*
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### Palantir — State Surveillance Deployment (Germany)
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| Bundesland | Product | Status |
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|------------|---------|--------|
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| Hessen | hessenDATA | Active since 2017/18 |
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| NRW | DAR | Active since 2022 |
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| Bayern | VeRA | Active since 2024 |
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| Baden-Württemberg | Gotham | Approved July 2025 |
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| Federal level | Gotham | Blocked Feb 2026 (Hubig/SPD) |
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*Federal Constitutional Court (Feb 2023): Hessen and Hamburg police law provisions for Palantir use declared partially unconstitutional — legal basis required revision.*
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---
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## Source Analysis
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### Why These Sources?
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| Source | Strengths | Weaknesses | Weight |
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|--------|-----------|------------|--------|
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| **V-Dem Institute** | Cross-national, expert-coded, longitudinal | Slight lag (1-2 year delay) | High |
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| **RSF Press Freedom** | Annual, internationally comparable | Perceptions-based component | High |
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| **ARD-DeutschlandTREND** | Monthly tracking, consistent methodology | Single pollster | Medium |
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| **More in Common** | Deep attitudinal segmentation | One study, 2024 snapshot | Medium |
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| **Bundeswahlleiter** | Official, definitive | Electoral only, not attitudinal | Very High |
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---
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## Research Metadata
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| Attribute | Value |
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|-----------|-------|
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| **Research Date** | 2026-04-18 |
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| **Researcher** | Sven / PAI |
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| **Method** | Manual aggregation from authoritative annual sources |
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| **Confidence Level** | 75–99% per metric (see table) |
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| **Known Gaps** | No live API available; requires manual annual update. Trust figures vary across surveys. |
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| **Update Frequency** | Annual (V-Dem, RSF) + quarterly (ARD-DeutschlandTREND) |
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---
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## Connection to Lobbyregister (DS-00011)
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The Lobbyregister is a complementary transparency source. Potential future metrics for this dataset:
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- Total registered lobbying expenditure (annual aggregate)
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- Top sectors by spending (Finance, Pharma, Energy)
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- Expenditure per policy area
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See `Data/sources/DS-00011—DE_Lobbyregister_Bundestag/source.md` for API access and quality notes.
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---
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## Connection to DE-Plan
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These metrics directly support `Plans/de-plan1-sven.md`:
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- AfD vote share (20.8%) → CHALLENGE 2: Authoritarian normalization
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- "Wütende" segment (~30%) → CHALLENGE 1: Epistemic fragmentation
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- Trust in Bundestag (~40%) → CHALLENGE 1 + CHALLENGE 4
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- Press Freedom Rank (#10) → STRATEGY 5: Local journalism investment
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- Palantir BRD deployment (4 Bundesländer active, federal blocked) → CHALLENGE 2: private surveillance infrastructure in state hands
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---
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## Changelog
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| Date | Change | Reason |
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| 2026-04-18 | Initial dataset created | Tier 2 Substrate development |
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| 2026-04-20 | Added Palantir DE state deployment table (4 Länder + federal block); DE-Plan connection | Memex: Palantir Technologies dot |
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