# DE Democracy Metrics

**Last Updated:** 2026-04-18
**Update Method:** Manual — annual reports, no live API
**Coverage:** 7 core democracy health indicators

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## 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE

| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
|--------|-------|------------|--------------|
| **Democracy Satisfaction** | **49%** very/fairly satisfied | 75% | 2024 |
| **Voter Turnout (Bundestagswahl)** | **77.8%** | 99% | 2025-02-23 |
| **Press Freedom Index (RSF)** | **Rank 10 / Score 79.1** | 95% | 2024 |
| **Trust in Bundestag** | **~40%** | 70% | 2025-Q1 |
| **V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index** | **0.82** (scale 0–1) | 85% | 2024 |
| **EIU Democracy Index** | **8.80 / 10 — Rank ~15** | 80% | 2023 |
| **Far-Right Vote Share (AfD)** | **20.8%** | 99% | 2025-02-23 |
| **"Wütende" Population Segment** | **~30%** | 65% | 2024 |

**One-liner:** German democracy is stable but eroding — 49% satisfied, 21% voting far-right.

**Caveat:** Democracy satisfaction and trust figures vary significantly across surveys and question framing.

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## Quick Context

Germany's democratic institutions remain functional, but key indicators signal structural stress: far-right vote shares have roughly doubled since 2017, institutional trust is declining across all major parties, and roughly a third of the population holds attitudes receptive to authoritarian framings (More in Common 2024). These are not post-election fluctuations but trend data.


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## Methodology Summary

**Approach:** Annual aggregation from authoritative institutional sources — V-Dem, RSF, Bertelsmann, ARD-DeutschlandTREND, official election data.

**Sources:**
- V-Dem Institute: Liberal Democracy Index (annual)
- Reporters Without Borders / Reporter ohne Grenzen (OR-00003): Press Freedom Index (annual)
- More in Common: "Die andere deutsche Teilung" (2024)
- Bertelsmann Stiftung: Democracy Report / Transformation Index
- ARD-DeutschlandTREND: monthly tracking poll
- Bundeswahlleiter: official election results

**Definition Used:** Democratic health as multi-dimensional — not just elections but trust, press freedom, participation quality, and societal polarization.

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## Detailed Findings

### Electoral Participation

| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|--------|-------|--------|--------|
| Bundestagswahl 2025 voter turnout | 77.8% | 2025-02-23 | Bundeswahlleiter |
| Bundestagswahl 2021 voter turnout | 76.6% | 2021-09-26 | Bundeswahlleiter |
| Europawahl 2024 turnout | 64.8% | 2024-06-09 | Bundeswahlleiter |
| AfD vote share 2025 | 20.8% | 2025-02-23 | Bundeswahlleiter |
| AfD vote share 2021 | 10.3% | 2021-09-26 | Bundeswahlleiter |

### Democratic Quality

| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|--------|-------|--------|--------|
| V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index | 0.82 | 2024 | V-Dem Institute |
| V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index | 0.88 | 2024 | V-Dem Institute |
| EIU Democracy Index Score | 8.80 / 10 | 2023 | The Economist Intelligence Unit |
| EIU Democracy Index Rank | ~#15 (Full Democracy) | 2023 | The Economist Intelligence Unit |
| RSF Press Freedom Rank | #10 | 2024 | Reporters Without Borders |
| RSF Press Freedom Score | 79.1 / 100 | 2024 | Reporters Without Borders |

### Trust and Satisfaction

| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|--------|-------|--------|--------|
| Democracy satisfaction (very/fairly) | ~49% | 2024 | Bertelsmann / ALLBUS |
| Trust in Bundestag | ~40% | Q1 2025 | ARD-DeutschlandTREND |
| Trust in Federal Government | ~35% | Q1 2025 | ARD-DeutschlandTREND |
| Trust in parties in general | ~20% | 2024 | Eurobarometer |

### Societal Polarization (More in Common 2024)

| Segment | Share | Characteristics |
|---------|-------|-----------------|
| Offene (Open) | ~22% | Pro-democratic, cosmopolitan |
| Involvierte (Engaged) | ~18% | Institutionally integrated |
| Etablierte (Established) | ~19% | Satisfied with status quo |
| Unsichtbare Mitte (Invisible Middle) | ~13% | Disengaged, no strong political identity |
| Frustrierte (Frustrated) | ~18% | Disenchanted but not authoritarian |
| Wütende (Angry) | ~10% | Authoritarian-receptive, conspiracy-prone |

*Note: "Wütende" at ~10% here is the hard core; the ~30% figure in BEST ESTIMATE reflects all authoritarian-receptive attitudes (Wütende + significant share of Frustrierte).*

### Palantir — State Surveillance Deployment (Germany)

| Bundesland | Product | Status |
|------------|---------|--------|
| Hessen | hessenDATA | Active since 2017/18 |
| NRW | DAR | Active since 2022 |
| Bayern | VeRA | Active since 2024 |
| Baden-Württemberg | Gotham | Approved July 2025 |
| Federal level | Gotham | Blocked Feb 2026 (Hubig/SPD) |

*Federal Constitutional Court (Feb 2023): Hessen and Hamburg police law provisions for Palantir use declared partially unconstitutional — legal basis required revision.*

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## Source Analysis

### Why These Sources?

| Source | Strengths | Weaknesses | Weight |
|--------|-----------|------------|--------|
| **V-Dem Institute** | Cross-national, expert-coded, longitudinal | Slight lag (1-2 year delay) | High |
| **RSF Press Freedom** | Annual, internationally comparable | Perceptions-based component | High |
| **ARD-DeutschlandTREND** | Monthly tracking, consistent methodology | Single pollster | Medium |
| **More in Common** | Deep attitudinal segmentation | One study, 2024 snapshot | Medium |
| **Bundeswahlleiter** | Official, definitive | Electoral only, not attitudinal | Very High |

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## Research Metadata

| Attribute | Value |
|-----------|-------|
| **Research Date** | 2026-04-18 |
| **Researcher** | Sven / PAI |
| **Method** | Manual aggregation from authoritative annual sources |
| **Confidence Level** | 75–99% per metric (see table) |
| **Known Gaps** | No live API available; requires manual annual update. Trust figures vary across surveys. |
| **Update Frequency** | Annual (V-Dem, RSF) + quarterly (ARD-DeutschlandTREND) |

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## Connection to Lobbyregister (DS-00011)

The Lobbyregister is a complementary transparency source. Potential future metrics for this dataset:
- Total registered lobbying expenditure (annual aggregate)
- Top sectors by spending (Finance, Pharma, Energy)
- Expenditure per policy area

See `Data/sources/DS-00011—DE_Lobbyregister_Bundestag/source.md` for API access and quality notes.

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## Connection to DE-Plan

These metrics directly support `Plans/de-plan1-sven.md`:

- AfD vote share (20.8%) → CHALLENGE 2: Authoritarian normalization
- "Wütende" segment (~30%) → CHALLENGE 1: Epistemic fragmentation
- Trust in Bundestag (~40%) → CHALLENGE 1 + CHALLENGE 4
- Press Freedom Rank (#10) → STRATEGY 5: Local journalism investment
- Palantir BRD deployment (4 Bundesländer active, federal blocked) → CHALLENGE 2: private surveillance infrastructure in state hands

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## Changelog

| Date | Change | Reason |
|------|--------|--------|
| 2026-04-18 | Initial dataset created | Tier 2 Substrate development |
| 2026-04-20 | Added Palantir DE state deployment table (4 Länder + federal block); DE-Plan connection | Memex: Palantir Technologies dot |