0698daea69
- Add DE-Platform-Media (DS-00015), DE-Epistemic-Competence (DS-00016), DE-Social-Mobility (DS-00017) with source stubs - Update DE-Democracy-Metrics, DE-Federal-Budget, DE-Lobby-Transparency, DE-Parliament-Activity, Knowledge-Worker salaries - Add get-de-digital script for digital economy data retrieval - Update de-plan1-sven with revised strategy sections - Rename flat-dir index files to .md (Arguments, Claims, Problems, Values) - Append new entries to Data/UPDATES.md Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
6.9 KiB
DE Democracy Metrics
Last Updated: 2026-04-18 Update Method: Manual — annual reports, no live API Coverage: 7 core democracy health indicators
🎯 BEST ESTIMATE
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democracy Satisfaction | 49% very/fairly satisfied | 75% | 2024 |
| Voter Turnout (Bundestagswahl) | 77.8% | 99% | 2025-02-23 |
| Press Freedom Index (RSF) | Rank 10 / Score 79.1 | 95% | 2024 |
| Trust in Bundestag | ~40% | 70% | 2025-Q1 |
| V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index | 0.82 (scale 0–1) | 85% | 2024 |
| EIU Democracy Index | 8.80 / 10 — Rank ~15 | 80% | 2023 |
| Far-Right Vote Share (AfD) | 20.8% | 99% | 2025-02-23 |
| "Wütende" Population Segment | ~30% | 65% | 2024 |
One-liner: German democracy is stable but eroding — 49% satisfied, 21% voting far-right.
Caveat: Democracy satisfaction and trust figures vary significantly across surveys and question framing.
Quick Context
Germany's democratic institutions remain functional, but key indicators signal structural stress: far-right vote shares have roughly doubled since 2017, institutional trust is declining across all major parties, and roughly a third of the population holds attitudes receptive to authoritarian framings (More in Common 2024). These are not post-election fluctuations but trend data.
Methodology Summary
Approach: Annual aggregation from authoritative institutional sources — V-Dem, RSF, Bertelsmann, ARD-DeutschlandTREND, official election data.
Sources:
- V-Dem Institute: Liberal Democracy Index (annual)
- Reporters Without Borders / Reporter ohne Grenzen (OR-00003): Press Freedom Index (annual)
- More in Common: "Die andere deutsche Teilung" (2024)
- Bertelsmann Stiftung: Democracy Report / Transformation Index
- ARD-DeutschlandTREND: monthly tracking poll
- Bundeswahlleiter: official election results
Definition Used: Democratic health as multi-dimensional — not just elections but trust, press freedom, participation quality, and societal polarization.
Detailed Findings
Electoral Participation
| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bundestagswahl 2025 voter turnout | 77.8% | 2025-02-23 | Bundeswahlleiter |
| Bundestagswahl 2021 voter turnout | 76.6% | 2021-09-26 | Bundeswahlleiter |
| Europawahl 2024 turnout | 64.8% | 2024-06-09 | Bundeswahlleiter |
| AfD vote share 2025 | 20.8% | 2025-02-23 | Bundeswahlleiter |
| AfD vote share 2021 | 10.3% | 2021-09-26 | Bundeswahlleiter |
Democratic Quality
| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index | 0.82 | 2024 | V-Dem Institute |
| V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index | 0.88 | 2024 | V-Dem Institute |
| EIU Democracy Index Score | 8.80 / 10 | 2023 | The Economist Intelligence Unit |
| EIU Democracy Index Rank | ~#15 (Full Democracy) | 2023 | The Economist Intelligence Unit |
| RSF Press Freedom Rank | #10 | 2024 | Reporters Without Borders |
| RSF Press Freedom Score | 79.1 / 100 | 2024 | Reporters Without Borders |
Trust and Satisfaction
| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democracy satisfaction (very/fairly) | ~49% | 2024 | Bertelsmann / ALLBUS |
| Trust in Bundestag | ~40% | Q1 2025 | ARD-DeutschlandTREND |
| Trust in Federal Government | ~35% | Q1 2025 | ARD-DeutschlandTREND |
| Trust in parties in general | ~20% | 2024 | Eurobarometer |
Societal Polarization (More in Common 2024)
| Segment | Share | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Offene (Open) | ~22% | Pro-democratic, cosmopolitan |
| Involvierte (Engaged) | ~18% | Institutionally integrated |
| Etablierte (Established) | ~19% | Satisfied with status quo |
| Unsichtbare Mitte (Invisible Middle) | ~13% | Disengaged, no strong political identity |
| Frustrierte (Frustrated) | ~18% | Disenchanted but not authoritarian |
| Wütende (Angry) | ~10% | Authoritarian-receptive, conspiracy-prone |
Note: "Wütende" at ~10% here is the hard core; the ~30% figure in BEST ESTIMATE reflects all authoritarian-receptive attitudes (Wütende + significant share of Frustrierte).
Palantir — State Surveillance Deployment (Germany)
| Bundesland | Product | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Hessen | hessenDATA | Active since 2017/18 |
| NRW | DAR | Active since 2022 |
| Bayern | VeRA | Active since 2024 |
| Baden-Württemberg | Gotham | Approved July 2025 |
| Federal level | Gotham | Blocked Feb 2026 (Hubig/SPD) |
Federal Constitutional Court (Feb 2023): Hessen and Hamburg police law provisions for Palantir use declared partially unconstitutional — legal basis required revision.
Source Analysis
Why These Sources?
| Source | Strengths | Weaknesses | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| V-Dem Institute | Cross-national, expert-coded, longitudinal | Slight lag (1-2 year delay) | High |
| RSF Press Freedom | Annual, internationally comparable | Perceptions-based component | High |
| ARD-DeutschlandTREND | Monthly tracking, consistent methodology | Single pollster | Medium |
| More in Common | Deep attitudinal segmentation | One study, 2024 snapshot | Medium |
| Bundeswahlleiter | Official, definitive | Electoral only, not attitudinal | Very High |
Research Metadata
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Research Date | 2026-04-18 |
| Researcher | Sven / PAI |
| Method | Manual aggregation from authoritative annual sources |
| Confidence Level | 75–99% per metric (see table) |
| Known Gaps | No live API available; requires manual annual update. Trust figures vary across surveys. |
| Update Frequency | Annual (V-Dem, RSF) + quarterly (ARD-DeutschlandTREND) |
Connection to Lobbyregister (DS-00011)
The Lobbyregister is a complementary transparency source. Potential future metrics for this dataset:
- Total registered lobbying expenditure (annual aggregate)
- Top sectors by spending (Finance, Pharma, Energy)
- Expenditure per policy area
See Data/sources/DS-00011—DE_Lobbyregister_Bundestag/source.md for API access and quality notes.
Connection to DE-Plan
These metrics directly support Plans/de-plan1-sven.md:
- AfD vote share (20.8%) → CHALLENGE 2: Authoritarian normalization
- "Wütende" segment (~30%) → CHALLENGE 1: Epistemic fragmentation
- Trust in Bundestag (~40%) → CHALLENGE 1 + CHALLENGE 4
- Press Freedom Rank (#10) → STRATEGY 5: Local journalism investment
- Palantir BRD deployment (4 Bundesländer active, federal blocked) → CHALLENGE 2: private surveillance infrastructure in state hands
Changelog
| Date | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Initial dataset created | Tier 2 Substrate development |
| 2026-04-20 | Added Palantir DE state deployment table (4 Länder + federal block); DE-Plan connection | Memex: Palantir Technologies dot |