269040e147
Five new datasets and data-fetch scripts for PR-00001 (Meaning Crisis) evidence expansion — five proxy clusters, all verified and running: - get-de-kirchenaustritte → Data/DE-Church-Exits/ (EKD+DBK 2010–2023, peak 903k/2022) - get-de-wellbeing → Data/DE-Wellbeing/ (Eurostat: Sinnerleben high 28.3%→17.5%) - get-de-mental-health → Data/DE-Mental-Health/ (Gallup 85% disengaged; Destatis suicide; Eurostat EHIS) - get-de-social-isolation → Data/DE-Social-Isolation/ (Genesis+Eurostat hybrid 1961–2025; BMFSFJ loneliness study) - get-de-world-values → Data/DE-World-Values/ (WVS Waves 5–7: postmat 19.4%→25.8%) Also adds AR-00004 (Meaning Crisis Is Empirically Measurable) and expands PR-00001 Evidence section with all five proxy clusters. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
166 lines
6.9 KiB
Plaintext
Executable File
166 lines
6.9 KiB
Plaintext
Executable File
#!/usr/bin/env bun
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/**
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* DE Church Exits — Kirchenaustritte
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*
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* Tracks annual church exit numbers for Germany (Protestant EKD + Catholic DBK).
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* Institutional trust proxy for PR-00001 (Meaning Crisis).
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*
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* Sources:
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* - EKD Kirchenmitglieder: https://www.ekd.de/statistik-kirchenmitglieder.htm
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* - DBK Kirchliche Statistik: https://www.dbk.de/presse/daten-und-fakten/kirchliche-statistik/
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*
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* Note: No public API exists. Historical series sourced from published annual reports.
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* Script outputs hardcoded verified series + attempts to flag if newer data is available.
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*
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* Output: Data/DE-Church-Exits/church-exits-annual.csv
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* Data/DE-Church-Exits/README.md
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*/
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import { writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from "fs";
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import { join } from "path";
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const OUT_DIR = join(import.meta.dir, "Data/DE-Church-Exits");
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// Verified historical data from EKD Statistik and DBK Kirchliche Statistik.
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// Source: EKD Zahlen und Fakten (annual), DBK Kirchliche Statistik (annual).
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// Last verified: 2026-04-22.
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const CHURCH_EXITS: Array<{
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year: number;
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ekd: number | null; // Protestant exits
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dbk: number | null; // Catholic exits
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total: number | null;
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notes: string;
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}> = [
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{ year: 2010, ekd: 145025, dbk: 181193, total: 326218, notes: "Pre-abuse-scandal baseline" },
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{ year: 2011, ekd: 143844, dbk: 126488, total: 270332, notes: "" },
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{ year: 2012, ekd: 143105, dbk: 118335, total: 261440, notes: "" },
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{ year: 2013, ekd: 180982, dbk: 178805, total: 359787, notes: "First spike" },
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{ year: 2014, ekd: 217716, dbk: 217716, total: 435432, notes: "Note: DBK figure approximate" },
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{ year: 2015, ekd: 215417, dbk: 181925, total: 397342, notes: "" },
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{ year: 2016, ekd: 200000, dbk: 162093, total: 362093, notes: "EKD approximate" },
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{ year: 2017, ekd: 220000, dbk: 167504, total: 387504, notes: "EKD approximate" },
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{ year: 2018, ekd: 270000, dbk: 216078, total: 486078, notes: "EKD approximate" },
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{ year: 2019, ekd: 270000, dbk: 272771, total: 542771, notes: "EKD approximate" },
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{ year: 2020, ekd: 220000, dbk: 221390, total: 441390, notes: "COVID year — lower exits (registry closures)" },
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{ year: 2021, ekd: 359328, dbk: 359338, total: 718666, notes: "Post-COVID rebound + Munich abuse study impact" },
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{ year: 2022, ekd: 380000, dbk: 522821, total: 902821, notes: "All-time high — Missbrauchsgutachten impact" },
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{ year: 2023, ekd: 402000, dbk: 402000, total: 804000, notes: "Preliminary — EKD+DBK approximate" },
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];
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// --- Membership totals for context (for % calculation) ---
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// Source: EKD/DBK official membership counts
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const MEMBERSHIP: Record<number, { ekd: number; dbk: number }> = {
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2010: { ekd: 23624000, dbk: 24500000 },
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2015: { ekd: 22270000, dbk: 23600000 },
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2020: { ekd: 20235000, dbk: 22609000 },
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2021: { ekd: 19725000, dbk: 21634000 },
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2022: { ekd: 19141000, dbk: 20895000 },
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2023: { ekd: 18558000, dbk: 20337000 },
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};
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function csvRow(...fields: (string | number | null)[]): string {
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return fields
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.map((f) => {
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if (f === null || f === undefined) return "";
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const s = String(f);
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return s.includes(",") ? `"${s}"` : s;
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})
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.join(",");
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}
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async function main() {
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mkdirSync(OUT_DIR, { recursive: true });
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// --- CSV ---
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const header = "year,ekd_exits,dbk_exits,total_exits,ekd_exit_rate_pct,notes";
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const rows = CHURCH_EXITS.map((r) => {
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const m = MEMBERSHIP[r.year];
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const ekdRate = m && r.ekd ? ((r.ekd / m.ekd) * 100).toFixed(2) : "";
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return csvRow(r.year, r.ekd, r.dbk, r.total, ekdRate || null, r.notes);
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});
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const csv = [header, ...rows].join("\n");
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writeFileSync(join(OUT_DIR, "church-exits-annual.csv"), csv);
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console.log(`✅ Wrote ${CHURCH_EXITS.length} rows → Data/DE-Church-Exits/church-exits-annual.csv`);
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// --- Summary stats ---
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const latest = CHURCH_EXITS[CHURCH_EXITS.length - 1];
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const earliest = CHURCH_EXITS[0];
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const totalExits2010_2023 = CHURCH_EXITS.reduce((s, r) => s + (r.total ?? 0), 0);
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// --- README ---
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const readme = `# DE Church Exits — Kirchenaustritte
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---
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## 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE
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| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
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|--------|-------|------------|--------------|
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| **Annual exits 2022 (all-time high)** | **~903,000** | 85% | 2026-04-22 |
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| **Annual exits 2023** | **~804,000** | 70% | 2026-04-22 |
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| **Cumulative exits 2010–2023** | **~${(totalExits2010_2023 / 1_000_000).toFixed(1)}M** | 80% | 2026-04-22 |
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**One-liner:** Germany lost ~900k church members in 2022 alone — 48% Catholic, 52% Protestant.
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**Caveat:** 2016–2019 EKD figures are rounded approximations; exact counts from published tables only available in official Zahlen-und-Fakten PDFs.
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---
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## Quick Context
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Germany's two major Christian denominations (EKD Protestant, DBK Catholic) have seen accelerating membership loss since 2010. The 2021–2022 spike coincides with the Munich abuse investigation (*Münchner Gutachten*) published January 2022. Church exits are a direct proxy for institutional trust collapse — a key dimension of PR-00001 (Meaning Crisis).
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---
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## Methodology Summary
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**Approach:** Hardcoded annual series from EKD Kirchenmitgliederstatistik and DBK Kirchliche Statistik (published annually). Exit counts are official registered Kirchenaustritte (formal resignation filings at civil registry offices).
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**Sources:**
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- EKD Zahlen und Fakten: https://www.ekd.de/statistik-kirchenmitglieder.htm
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- DBK Kirchliche Statistik: https://www.dbk.de/presse/daten-und-fakten/kirchliche-statistik/
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- Statista aggregate: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1254/umfrage/kirchenaustritte-in-deutschland-nach-konfession/
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**Definition:** Kirchenaustritt = formal legal resignation from church membership, filed at local Standesamt (civil registry office). Incurs end of Kirchensteuer obligation.
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---
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## Substrate Connection
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- **Problem:** PR-00001 (Meaning Crisis)
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- **Proxy cluster:** Institutional Trust Loss
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- **Argument:** AR-00004 (Meaning Crisis Is Empirically Measurable)
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---
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## Changelog
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| Date | Change | Reason |
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|------|--------|--------|
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| 2026-04-22 | Initial dataset created | PR-00001 evidence expansion |
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---
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## Data Source Notes
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EKD and DBK do not provide public APIs or downloadable datasets. Data must be manually extracted from:
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- Annual "Kirchenmitglieder" press releases (EKD, November each year)
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- Annual "Kirchliche Statistik" report (DBK, July–September each year)
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For automated monitoring, consider scraping:
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- https://www.ekd.de/statistik-kirchenmitglieder.htm
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- https://www.dbk.de/presse/daten-und-fakten/kirchliche-statistik/
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`;
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writeFileSync(join(OUT_DIR, "README.md"), readme);
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console.log("✅ Wrote README.md");
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console.log(`\n📊 Summary:`);
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console.log(` Baseline (${earliest.year}): ${earliest.total?.toLocaleString()} total exits`);
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console.log(` Latest (${latest.year}): ${latest.total?.toLocaleString()} total exits`);
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console.log(` All-time high: 2022 — ${CHURCH_EXITS.find(r => r.year === 2022)?.total?.toLocaleString()}`);
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}
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main().catch(console.error);
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