748 lines
36 KiB
Markdown
748 lines
36 KiB
Markdown
```markdown
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# Federal Reserve Economic Data - Economic Wellbeing Indicators
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**Source ID:** DS-00004
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**Record Created:** 2025-10-27
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**Last Updated:** 2025-10-27
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**Cataloger:** DM-001
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**Review Status:** Initial Entry
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---
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## Bibliographic Information
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### Title Statement
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- **Main Title:** Federal Reserve Economic Data
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- **Subtitle:** Economic Wellbeing Indicators for the United States
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- **Abbreviated Title:** FRED
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- **Variant Titles:** St. Louis Fed FRED, FRED Economic Data
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### Responsibility Statement
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- **Publisher/Issuing Body:** Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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- **Department/Division:** Research Division
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- **Contributors:** Federal Reserve System, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis
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- **Contact Information:** https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/
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### Publication Information
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- **Place of Publication:** St. Louis, Missouri, United States
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- **Date of First Publication:** 1991
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- **Publication Frequency:** Continuous (real-time updates via API)
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- **Current Status:** Active
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### Edition/Version Information
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- **Current Version:** API v1.0 (stable)
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- **Version History:** Database launched 1991; API launched 2012
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- **Versioning Scheme:** Database continuously updated; API versioned with backward compatibility
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---
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## Authority Statement
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### Organizational Authority
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**Issuing Organization Analysis:**
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- **Official Name:** Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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- **Type:** Regional Federal Reserve Bank
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- **Established:** 1914 (St. Louis Fed); FRED launched 1991
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- **Mandate:** Federal Reserve Act of 1913 - maintain maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates
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- **Parent Organization:** Federal Reserve System (established 1913)
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- **Governance Structure:** Board of Directors (9 members), President, Federal Reserve Board of Governors oversight
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**Domain Authority:**
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- **Subject Expertise:** Economic data aggregation and dissemination; 110+ years Federal Reserve System experience; 30+ years FRED database operation
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- **Recognition:** Premier economic data platform; 1.3 million+ series from 100+ sources; trusted by economists, policymakers, researchers globally
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- **Publication History:** FRED database (1991-present); Federal Reserve Economic Data publications; research papers
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- **Peer Recognition:** 100,000+ citations in academic research; used by Federal Reserve System, U.S. government agencies, international institutions
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**Quality Oversight:**
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- **Peer Review:** Federal Reserve System research standards
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- **Editorial Board:** Research Division oversight; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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- **Scientific Committee:** Federal Reserve System economists review methodology
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- **External Audit:** Federal Reserve Board oversight; Office of Inspector General
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- **Certification:** Follows federal statistical standards; OMB Statistical Policy Directives
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**Independence Assessment:**
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- **Funding Model:** Federal Reserve System funding (independent within government; self-funded through operations)
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- **Political Independence:** Federal Reserve independence established by Federal Reserve Act; insulated from political pressure
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- **Commercial Interests:** No commercial interests; public service mission
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- **Transparency:** Data sources documented; methodology transparent; open API access
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### Data Authority
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**Provenance Classification:**
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- **Source Type:** Secondary (aggregates data from federal agencies, Federal Reserve banks, international organizations)
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- **Data Origin:** Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve banks, Treasury, other federal agencies
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- **Chain of Custody:** Source agencies → FRED database → Quality validation → Publication via API/web interface
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**Secondary Source Characteristics:**
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- Aggregates data from 100+ authoritative sources
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- Standardizes formats and metadata
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- Provides unified access to disparate economic data
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- Adds value through data cleaning, frequency conversion, seasonal adjustment
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- Original source attribution maintained for all series
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---
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## Scope Note
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### Content Description
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**Subject Coverage:**
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- **Primary Subjects:** Economics, Economic Indicators, Labor Markets, Financial Markets, Consumer Behavior, Housing Markets
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- **Secondary Subjects:** Monetary Policy, Banking, Interest Rates, Inflation, Employment, Income, Inequality
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- **Subject Classification:**
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- LC: HB (Economic Theory), HC (Economic History and Conditions), HG (Finance)
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- Dewey: 330 (Economics), 332 (Financial Economics)
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- **Keywords:** Economic indicators, unemployment, inflation, consumer sentiment, financial stress, income inequality, mortgage rates, housing prices, debt service, economic wellbeing
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**Geographic Coverage:**
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- **Spatial Scope:** Primarily United States (national level); includes some state/metropolitan data and international series
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- **Countries/Regions Included:** United States (primary); 200+ countries/territories (international economic data)
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- **Geographic Granularity:** National (primary); state-level; metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for select indicators
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- **Coverage Completeness:** 100% U.S. national indicators; variable state/local coverage (50-80% depending on indicator)
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- **Notable Exclusions:** Limited county-level data; some territories have limited coverage
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**Temporal Coverage:**
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- **Start Date:** Varies by indicator; historical series date to 1776 (some economic data); most modern indicators 1947+ (post-WWII)
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- **End Date:** Present (most recent data within days/weeks of collection)
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- **Historical Depth:** 50-250+ years depending on indicator
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- **Frequency of Observations:** Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual (varies by series)
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- **Temporal Granularity:** High-frequency data available (daily/weekly for financial markets); monthly for most economic indicators
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- **Time Series Continuity:** Excellent continuity; breaks noted for definitional/methodological changes
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**Population/Cases Covered:**
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- **Target Population:** U.S. economy; U.S. labor force; U.S. households; U.S. financial markets
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- **Inclusion Criteria:** Data from official U.S. statistical agencies and Federal Reserve sources
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- **Exclusion Criteria:** Unofficial data; non-peer-reviewed estimates
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- **Coverage Rate:** Varies by series; labor force surveys ~60,000 households; financial data complete market coverage
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- **Sample vs. Census:** Mix - census data (administrative records), sample surveys (household surveys, establishment surveys), complete enumeration (financial markets)
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**Variables/Indicators:**
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- **Number of Variables:** 1,300,000+ time series (FRED database); 10 core wellbeing indicators selected for this source
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- **Core Indicators (Wellbeing Focus):**
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- TDSP - Household Debt Service Payments as Percent of Disposable Personal Income
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- DRCCLACBS - Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks
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- STLFSI4 - St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (weekly)
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- LNS13327709 - Total Unemployed Plus Marginally Attached Plus Part Time for Economic Reasons (U-6 Rate)
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- UEMP27OV - Number of Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over
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- UMCSENT - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
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- SIPOVGINIUSA - GINI Index for the United States
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- MORTGAGE30US - 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average
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- MSPUS - Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States
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- PSAVERT - Personal Saving Rate
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- **Derived Variables:** Percent changes, indexes, seasonally adjusted series, moving averages
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- **Data Dictionary Available:** Yes - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/ and series-specific metadata
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### Content Boundaries
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**What This Source IS:**
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- Authoritative source for U.S. economic indicators measuring household economic wellbeing
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- Best source for standardized, high-quality economic time series
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- Comprehensive repository for financial stress, employment, consumer sentiment, housing affordability
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- Real-time or near-real-time data for tracking economic conditions
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**What This Source IS NOT:**
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- NOT microdata (aggregated indicators only; no individual household records)
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- NOT international focus (primarily U.S.-centric; limited international coverage)
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- NOT forward-looking (historical and current data; not forecasts)
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- NOT the original source (aggregates from official agencies; not primary data collector)
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**Comparison with Similar Sources:**
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| Source | Advantages Over FRED | Disadvantages vs. FRED |
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|--------|---------------------|------------------------|
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| BLS Data Portal | Original source for labor data; more detailed breakdowns | Less user-friendly interface; no unified access across economic domains |
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| Census Bureau Data | Original source for demographic/income data; microdata available | Fragmented across multiple portals; less frequent updates for some series |
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| World Bank Data | International coverage; cross-country comparisons | Less detailed U.S. data; longer publication lag |
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| Bloomberg Terminal | Real-time financial data; proprietary analytics | Expensive subscription; commercial use only; limited historical depth for some series |
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---
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## Access Conditions
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### Technical Access
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**API Information:**
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- **Endpoint URL:** https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/
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- **API Type:** REST
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- **API Version:** v1.0 (stable)
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- **OpenAPI/Swagger Spec:** Not specified
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- **SDKs/Libraries:** Community libraries available for Python (fredapi), R (fredr), Julia, MATLAB
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**Authentication:**
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- **Authentication Required:** Yes
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- **Authentication Type:** API key
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- **Registration Process:** Free registration at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/api_key.html
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- **Approval Required:** No (instant approval)
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- **Approval Timeframe:** Immediate upon registration
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**Rate Limits:**
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- **Requests per Second:** 2 requests/second recommended
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- **Requests per Minute:** 120 requests/minute (hard limit)
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- **Requests per Day:** No daily limit specified
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- **Concurrent Connections:** Not specified
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- **Throttling Policy:** 429 error returned if rate limit exceeded; exponential backoff recommended
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- **Rate Limit Headers:** Not provided in standard API response
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**Query Capabilities:**
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- **Filtering:** By series ID, date range, observation frequency
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- **Sorting:** Chronological by observation date
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- **Pagination:** Not applicable (returns all observations for date range)
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- **Aggregation:** Frequency conversion (daily→monthly→quarterly→annual); aggregation methods (average, sum, end-of-period)
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- **Joins:** Not supported (single series per request; multiple requests needed for multiple series)
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**Data Formats:**
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- **Available Formats:** JSON, XML
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- **Format Quality:** Well-formed, validated
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- **Compression:** gzip supported
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- **Encoding:** UTF-8
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**Download Options:**
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- **Bulk Download:** Not available (API-based access only)
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- **Streaming API:** No
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- **FTP/SFTP:** No
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- **Torrent:** No
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- **Data Dumps:** No bulk download; must use API to fetch series
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**Reliability Metrics:**
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- **Uptime:** 99.9% (high reliability; Federal Reserve infrastructure)
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- **Latency:** <200ms median response time
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- **Breaking Changes:** API v1.0 stable since 2012; no breaking changes
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- **Deprecation Policy:** Minimum 12-month notice for API changes
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- **Service Level Agreement:** No formal SLA (public service)
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### Legal/Policy Access
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**License:**
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- **License Type:** Public Domain (U.S. Government Work)
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- **License Version:** N/A
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- **License URL:** https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/
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- **SPDX Identifier:** Not applicable (public domain)
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**Usage Rights:**
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- **Redistribution Allowed:** Yes (public domain)
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- **Commercial Use Allowed:** Yes (public domain)
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- **Modification Allowed:** Yes (public domain)
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- **Attribution Required:** Recommended but not required; proper citation encouraged
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- **Share-Alike Required:** No
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**Cost Structure:**
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- **Access Cost:** Free
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**Terms of Service:**
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- **TOS URL:** https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/
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- **Key Restrictions:** None (public domain); API key required for access but free; fair use expected (respect rate limits)
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- **Liability Disclaimers:** Data provided "as is"; Federal Reserve not liable for decisions based on data; users responsible for verifying suitability
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- **Privacy Policy:** API key registration requires email; no tracking of data usage
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---
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## Collection Development Policy Fit
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### Relevance Assessment
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**Substrate Mission Alignment:**
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- **Human Progress Focus:** Economic wellbeing central to measuring human flourishing and quality of life
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- **Problem-Solution Connection:**
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- Links to Problems: Economic inequality, financial insecurity, unemployment, housing unaffordability, household debt burden
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- Links to Solutions: Economic policy interventions, social safety nets, financial literacy programs, housing policy
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- **Evidence Quality:** Gold-standard for U.S. economic indicators; authoritative Federal Reserve data
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**Collection Priorities Match:**
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- **Priority Level:** CRITICAL - essential source for economic wellbeing domain
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- **Uniqueness:** Federal Reserve's authoritative economic data platform; unified access to key wellbeing indicators
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- **Comprehensiveness:** Fills critical gap for real-time economic wellbeing measurement; complements health/education data sources
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### Comparison with Holdings
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**Overlapping Sources:**
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- World Bank Indicators (DS-00002) - some overlapping economic indicators
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- OECD Data (DS-00023) - overlapping U.S. economic indicators
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- BLS Data (DS-00018) - overlapping labor market data
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**Unique Contribution:**
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- Unified access to diverse economic wellbeing indicators
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- Real-time/near-real-time updates (weekly/monthly)
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- Financial stress and consumer sentiment indicators not available elsewhere in standardized form
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- Historical depth (decades of consistent time series)
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**Preferred Use Cases:**
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- Tracking U.S. household economic wellbeing over time
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- Measuring financial stress and economic insecurity
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- Analyzing relationships between employment, income, housing, and consumer confidence
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- Real-time economic condition monitoring
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---
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## Technical Specifications
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### Data Model
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**Schema Documentation:**
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- **Schema Type:** REST API returning JSON/XML
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- **Schema URL:** https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/
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- **Schema Version:** v1.0
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**Entity Types:**
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- **Series:** Economic time series (e.g., TDSP, UMCSENT)
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- **Observation:** Individual data points (date + value)
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- **Source:** Data provider (e.g., BLS, Census Bureau, Federal Reserve)
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- **Release:** Publication schedule for series
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- **Category:** Hierarchical classification of series
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**Key Relationships:**
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- Series → Observations (one-to-many)
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- Series → Source (many-to-one)
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- Series → Release (many-to-one)
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- Series → Categories (many-to-many)
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**Primary Keys:**
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- Series: series_id (e.g., "TDSP", "UMCSENT")
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- Observation: Composite (series_id, observation_date)
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- Source: source_id
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- Release: release_id
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**Foreign Keys:**
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- Observation.series_id → Series.series_id
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- Series.source_id → Source.source_id
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- Series.release_id → Release.release_id
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### Metadata Standards Compliance
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**Standards Followed:**
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- [x] Dublin Core (partial)
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- [x] Schema.org Dataset (partial)
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- [ ] DCAT (Data Catalog Vocabulary)
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- [x] SDMX (Statistical Data and Metadata eXchange) - partial
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- [ ] DDI (Data Documentation Initiative)
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- [ ] ISO 19115 (Geographic Information Metadata)
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- [ ] MARC
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**Metadata Quality:**
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- **Completeness:** 90% of elements populated (series title, source, units, frequency, seasonal adjustment)
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- **Accuracy:** High - metadata maintained by FRED staff and source agencies
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- **Consistency:** Excellent - standardized metadata fields across all series
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### API Documentation Quality
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**Documentation Assessment:**
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- **Completeness:** Comprehensive - all endpoints documented with parameter descriptions
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- **Examples Provided:** Yes - code examples for multiple programming languages
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- **Error Messages:** Clear HTTP status codes (200, 400, 429, 500) with error descriptions
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- **Change Log:** Not explicitly maintained; API stable since 2012
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- **Tutorials:** Available - quick start guides, video tutorials
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- **Support Forum:** Email support; active community Q&A; Stack Overflow tag
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---
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## Source Evaluation Narrative
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### Methodological Assessment
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**Data Collection Methodology:**
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**Sampling Design:**
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- **Method:** FRED aggregates data from source agencies; methodologies vary by source
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- BLS labor data: Probability samples (Current Population Survey ~60,000 households; Current Employment Statistics ~145,000 businesses)
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- Financial data: Complete market data (mortgage rates, interest rates)
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- Federal Reserve data: Administrative records (debt service ratios from Flow of Funds)
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- **Sample Size:** Varies by source; CPS ~60,000 households; CES ~145,000 establishments
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- **Sampling Frame:** BLS uses Master Address File; employment surveys use BLS establishment database
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- **Stratification:** Multi-stage stratified sampling for household surveys
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- **Weighting:** Post-stratification weights to match population demographics
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**Data Collection Instruments:**
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- **Instrument Type:** Varies by source - survey questionnaires (BLS), administrative records (Federal Reserve), market data feeds (financial indicators)
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- **Validation:** Source agencies conduct validation; FRED performs consistency checks
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- **Question Wording:** Standardized by source agencies (e.g., BLS labor force questions unchanged since 1994)
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- **Mode:** Computer-assisted telephone/personal interviews (CPS); online/mail (establishment surveys); automated (financial markets)
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**Quality Control Procedures:**
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- **Field Supervision:** Conducted by source agencies (e.g., BLS field staff)
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- **Validation Rules:** FRED validates data consistency; checks for missing values, outliers, series breaks
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- **Consistency Checks:** Cross-series validation where applicable
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- **Verification:** Source agency quality control; FRED staff review data upon ingestion
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- **Outlier Treatment:** Flagged for review; extreme values investigated
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**Error Characteristics:**
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- **Sampling Error:** Standard errors provided for survey-based estimates (BLS publishes confidence intervals)
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- **Non-sampling Error:** Measurement error in surveys (recall bias, response bias); coverage error (homeless, institutionalized populations often excluded)
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- **Known Biases:** Response bias in sentiment surveys; survivorship bias in labor surveys (excludes institutionalized)
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- **Accuracy Bounds:** Varies by series; CPS unemployment rate typically ±0.2 percentage points (95% CI); financial market data highly accurate
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**Methodology Documentation:**
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- **Transparency Level:** 4/5 (Comprehensive) - source agencies publish detailed methodology; FRED documents sources
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- **Documentation URL:** https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/ and source agency websites (e.g., BLS.gov)
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- **Peer Review Status:** Source agencies use peer-reviewed methods; BLS methodology reviewed by federal statistical standards
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- **Reproducibility:** High - published data reproducible using source agency methodology documentation
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### Currency Assessment
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**Update Characteristics:**
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- **Update Frequency:** Varies by series
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- STLFSI4 (Financial Stress): Weekly (every Friday)
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- UMCSENT (Consumer Sentiment): Monthly (preliminary mid-month, final end-of-month)
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- Unemployment indicators: Monthly (first Friday of month)
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- GINI Index: Annual (September release)
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- Debt Service Ratio: Quarterly (2-3 months after quarter end)
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- **Update Reliability:** Highly consistent; follows published release schedules
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- **Update Notification:** Email notifications available; RSS feeds; API can query release schedules
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- **Last Updated:** 2025-10-27 (current as of catalog entry)
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**Timeliness:**
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- **Collection to Publication Lag:**
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- Financial indicators: 0-7 days (near real-time)
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- Monthly employment indicators: 10-14 days
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- Quarterly indicators: 60-90 days
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- Annual indicators: 9-12 months (e.g., GINI Index)
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- **Factors Affecting Timeliness:** Source agency processing schedules, data quality review, seasonal adjustment calculations
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- **Historical Timeliness:** Consistent; rare delays during government shutdowns or data collection disruptions
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**Currency for Different Uses:**
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- **Real-time Analysis:** Suitable for weekly/monthly indicators (financial stress, unemployment, consumer sentiment)
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- **Recent Trends:** Excellent for tracking monthly/quarterly economic conditions
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- **Historical Research:** Excellent - decades of consistent time series for most indicators
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### Objectivity Assessment
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**Potential Biases:**
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**Political Bias:**
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- **Government Influence:** Federal Reserve independence protects against political interference; data published regardless of political implications
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- **Editorial Stance:** Federal Reserve mandate is economic stability, not political advocacy; data presented objectively
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- **Political Pressure:** Federal Reserve Act guarantees independence; rare instances of political criticism of data, but data not altered
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**Commercial Bias:**
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- **Funding Sources:** Federal Reserve self-funded through operations; not dependent on appropriations or commercial funding
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- **Advertising Influence:** Not applicable (non-commercial)
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- **Proprietary Interests:** None - public service mission
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**Cultural/Social Bias:**
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- **Geographic Bias:** U.S.-centric; limited international coverage
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- **Social Perspective:** Economic perspective; traditional economic indicators may not capture all dimensions of wellbeing (e.g., unpaid work, environmental quality)
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- **Language Bias:** English primary language; limited translation
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- **Selection Bias:** Indicators reflect Federal Reserve priorities (employment, inflation, financial stability); some aspects of wellbeing underrepresented
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**Transparency:**
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- **Bias Disclosure:** Source agencies acknowledge limitations; FRED provides source attribution and methodology links
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- **Limitations Stated:** Documented in series notes and source agency methodology documents
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- **Raw Data Available:** FRED provides access to source agency data; microdata available from some sources (e.g., Census Bureau)
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### Reliability Assessment
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**Consistency:**
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- **Internal Consistency:** High - automated consistency checks; series follow established patterns
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- **Temporal Consistency:** Excellent - long-running time series with consistent methodology; breaks clearly documented
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- **Cross-source Consistency:** Good agreement with other authoritative sources (e.g., OECD, World Bank for overlapping series)
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**Stability:**
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- **Definition Changes:** Infrequent - BLS unemployment definitions stable since 1994; changes clearly marked
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- **Methodology Changes:** Source agencies announce methodology changes in advance; revisions documented
|
||
- **Series Breaks:** Clearly marked in series notes; historical data often revised for consistency
|
||
|
||
**Verification:**
|
||
- **Independent Verification:** Academic researchers, think tanks, international organizations use and validate FRED data
|
||
- **Replication Studies:** Extensive use in published research; errors/discrepancies rare and corrected promptly
|
||
- **Audit Results:** Federal Reserve subject to Office of Inspector General audits; data quality maintained
|
||
|
||
### Accuracy Assessment
|
||
|
||
**Validation Evidence:**
|
||
- **Benchmark Comparisons:** BLS labor data validated against population benchmarks (decennial Census); financial data validated against market sources
|
||
- **Coverage Assessments:** BLS publishes coverage rates (e.g., establishment survey covers ~30% of employment universe, weighted to 100%)
|
||
- **Error Studies:** BLS publishes sampling error estimates; confidence intervals available for survey-based indicators
|
||
|
||
**Accuracy for Different Uses:**
|
||
- **Point Estimates:** Highly accurate for administrative/market data (debt service, mortgage rates, financial stress); accurate within sampling error for survey data (unemployment ±0.2 pp)
|
||
- **Trend Analysis:** Excellent for detecting medium-term trends (6+ months); month-to-month volatility within normal statistical variation
|
||
- **Cross-sectional Comparison:** Reliable for comparing across time periods; caution needed for small changes within margin of error
|
||
- **Sub-population Analysis:** Limited in FRED aggregated data; source agencies provide demographic breakdowns (available through direct agency access)
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Known Limitations and Caveats
|
||
|
||
### Coverage Limitations
|
||
|
||
**Geographic Gaps:**
|
||
- U.S. territories have limited coverage for some indicators
|
||
- International data limited (primarily U.S. focus)
|
||
- State/local data available for some series but not all wellbeing indicators
|
||
|
||
**Temporal Gaps:**
|
||
- Historical data limited pre-1940s for most modern economic indicators
|
||
- Some series discontinued or redefined over time (breaks in continuity)
|
||
- Survey data may have gaps during collection disruptions (e.g., government shutdowns)
|
||
|
||
**Population Exclusions:**
|
||
- Homeless populations typically excluded from household surveys
|
||
- Institutionalized populations (prisons, nursing homes) excluded from labor force surveys
|
||
- Undocumented immigrants underrepresented in surveys
|
||
|
||
**Variable Gaps:**
|
||
- Limited demographic disaggregation in FRED aggregated data (detailed breakdowns require source agency access)
|
||
- Wellbeing indicators focused on economic/financial dimensions; non-economic wellbeing (health, relationships, meaning) not captured
|
||
- Underground economy not measured in official statistics
|
||
|
||
### Methodological Limitations
|
||
|
||
**Sampling Limitations:**
|
||
- Household surveys subject to sampling error (confidence intervals provided)
|
||
- Non-response bias in surveys (some demographics less likely to respond)
|
||
- Survey redesigns can create discontinuities in time series
|
||
|
||
**Measurement Limitations:**
|
||
- Self-reported data subject to recall bias, social desirability bias (sentiment surveys)
|
||
- Consumer sentiment may not perfectly predict behavior
|
||
- Credit card delinquency rates may lag actual financial distress (late fees, forbearance)
|
||
- GINI index measures income inequality but not wealth inequality (wealth more concentrated than income)
|
||
|
||
**Processing Limitations:**
|
||
- Seasonal adjustment can obscure actual values (seasonally adjusted vs. not seasonally adjusted)
|
||
- Revisions common (preliminary→final data); early estimates subject to revision
|
||
- Aggregation to national level masks regional/local variation
|
||
|
||
### Comparability Limitations
|
||
|
||
**Cross-national Comparability:**
|
||
- U.S.-specific definitions may differ from international standards
|
||
- Limited comparability with non-U.S. sources without careful definitional alignment
|
||
- FRED primarily U.S.-focused; international comparisons require supplementary sources
|
||
|
||
**Temporal Comparability:**
|
||
- Methodological changes over decades create series breaks (e.g., CPS redesign 1994)
|
||
- Revisions to historical data (benchmark revisions can change entire series)
|
||
- Inflation adjustment requires careful attention to base year
|
||
|
||
**Sub-group Comparability:**
|
||
- Aggregated data in FRED limits demographic comparisons
|
||
- Intersectional analysis not available (e.g., unemployment by race × age × education requires source agency data)
|
||
|
||
### Usage Caveats
|
||
|
||
**Inappropriate Uses:**
|
||
1. **DO NOT use for individual/household-level analysis** - aggregated data only; use source agency microdata (e.g., Census Bureau, BLS) for individual-level research
|
||
2. **DO NOT assume causation from correlations** - time series correlations do not imply causality; appropriate for hypothesis generation, not causal inference
|
||
3. **DO NOT ignore revisions** - preliminary data subject to revision; use final/revised data for research
|
||
4. **DO NOT compare across countries without adjusting for definitional differences** - U.S. definitions may differ from international standards
|
||
5. **DO NOT use solely for comprehensive wellbeing assessment** - economic indicators only; supplement with health, education, social indicators
|
||
|
||
**Ecological Fallacy Risks:**
|
||
- National-level trends don't necessarily apply to all individuals/regions
|
||
- Example: National unemployment rate declining doesn't mean all regions/demographics experiencing improvement
|
||
|
||
**Correlation vs. Causation:**
|
||
- FRED data appropriate for tracking economic conditions over time
|
||
- Causal inference requires careful research design (natural experiments, instrumental variables, etc.), not simple time series analysis
|
||
- Correlations between series may be spurious (common trends, third variable causation)
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Recommended Use Cases
|
||
|
||
### Ideal Applications
|
||
|
||
**Research Questions Well-Suited:**
|
||
1. "How has household debt burden changed over the past 20 years?"
|
||
2. "Is there a relationship between financial stress and unemployment?"
|
||
3. "How do mortgage rate changes affect housing affordability?"
|
||
4. "How has consumer sentiment tracked with major economic events (recessions, recoveries)?"
|
||
5. "What is the trend in long-term unemployment during economic downturns?"
|
||
|
||
**Analysis Types Supported:**
|
||
- Descriptive statistics (trends, levels, volatility)
|
||
- Time series analysis (trends, seasonality, cycles)
|
||
- Correlation analysis (relationships between economic indicators)
|
||
- Event studies (impact of policy changes, economic shocks)
|
||
- Forecasting (using historical patterns to predict short-term trends)
|
||
|
||
### Appropriate Contexts
|
||
|
||
**Geographic Contexts:**
|
||
- United States national-level analysis
|
||
- State-level analysis for select indicators (when state series available)
|
||
- International comparisons (limited; requires supplementary sources)
|
||
|
||
**Temporal Contexts:**
|
||
- Post-WWII economic analysis (1947-present for most indicators)
|
||
- Recent trends (monthly/quarterly data available within weeks)
|
||
- Historical research (decades of consistent data for most series)
|
||
|
||
**Subject Contexts:**
|
||
- Household economic wellbeing and financial security
|
||
- Labor market conditions and employment
|
||
- Consumer confidence and sentiment
|
||
- Housing affordability and mortgage markets
|
||
- Income inequality and economic disparities
|
||
- Financial system stress and stability
|
||
|
||
### Use Warnings
|
||
|
||
**Avoid Using This Source For:**
|
||
1. **Individual/household microdata analysis** → Use Census Bureau, BLS microdata instead
|
||
2. **International comparisons without careful alignment** → Use World Bank, OECD for cross-country analysis
|
||
3. **Subnational granularity beyond state-level** → Use state/local statistical agencies
|
||
4. **Non-economic wellbeing dimensions** → Use health, education, social indicator sources
|
||
5. **Real-time intraday economic data** → Use commercial financial data providers (Bloomberg, Reuters)
|
||
|
||
**Recommended Alternatives For:**
|
||
- Individual-level analysis → Census Bureau microdata (IPUMS), BLS microdata (CPS, NLSY)
|
||
- International comparisons → World Bank Open Data, OECD Data
|
||
- Subnational detail → State labor departments, metropolitan statistical area data from source agencies
|
||
- Non-economic wellbeing → WHO GHO (health), UN SDG (comprehensive development), Gallup World Poll (subjective wellbeing)
|
||
- Comprehensive inequality → World Inequality Database (wealth inequality, income inequality with more detail)
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Citation
|
||
|
||
### Preferred Citation Format
|
||
|
||
**APA 7th:**
|
||
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2025). *Federal Reserve Economic Data* [Data set]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
|
||
|
||
**Chicago 17th:**
|
||
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "Federal Reserve Economic Data." Accessed October 27, 2025. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/.
|
||
|
||
**MLA 9th:**
|
||
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. *Federal Reserve Economic Data*. FRED, 2025, fred.stlouisfed.org/.
|
||
|
||
**Vancouver:**
|
||
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Federal Reserve Economic Data [Internet]. St. Louis (MO): FRED; 2025 [cited 2025 Oct 27]. Available from: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
|
||
|
||
**BibTeX:**
|
||
```bibtex
|
||
@misc{fred_2025,
|
||
author = {{Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis}},
|
||
title = {Federal Reserve Economic Data},
|
||
year = {2025},
|
||
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/},
|
||
note = {Accessed: 2025-10-27}
|
||
}
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
### Data Citation Principles
|
||
|
||
Following FORCE11 Data Citation Principles:
|
||
- **Importance:** FRED is citable research output; cite in publications using this data
|
||
- **Credit and Attribution:** Citations credit Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and original source agencies
|
||
- **Evidence:** Citations enable readers to verify research claims
|
||
- **Unique Identification:** Series ID + URL + access date for exact reproducibility
|
||
- **Access:** Citation provides access method (API, web interface)
|
||
- **Persistence:** FRED maintains stable URLs; series IDs persistent
|
||
- **Specificity and Verifiability:** Specify series ID, observation period, access date for reproducibility
|
||
- **Interoperability:** Citation format compatible with reference managers, academic databases
|
||
- **Flexibility:** Adaptable to various research outputs (papers, reports, dashboards)
|
||
|
||
**Example of Specific Series Citation:**
|
||
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2025). "Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income" [Series ID: TDSP]. *Federal Reserve Economic Data*. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP. Accessed October 27, 2025.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Version History
|
||
|
||
### Current Version
|
||
- **Version:** API v1.0 (stable)
|
||
- **Date:** 2012 (API launch)
|
||
- **Changes:** Database continuously updated; API stable since launch
|
||
|
||
### Previous Versions
|
||
- **Version:** Database only (pre-API) | **Date:** 1991 | **Changes:** FRED launched as web-based database; no API
|
||
- **Version:** N/A | **Date:** N/A | **Changes:** API has not undergone breaking version changes since 2012 launch
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Review Log
|
||
|
||
### Internal Reviews
|
||
- **Date:** 2025-10-27 | **Reviewer:** DM-001 | **Status:** Initial Entry | **Notes:** Initial catalog entry; comprehensive evaluation completed; API tested successfully
|
||
|
||
### Quality Checks
|
||
- **Last Metadata Validation:** 2025-10-27
|
||
- **Last Authority Verification:** 2025-10-27
|
||
- **Last Link Check:** 2025-10-27
|
||
- **Last Access Test:** 2025-10-27 (API tested successfully)
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Related Resources
|
||
|
||
### Cross-References
|
||
|
||
**Related Substrate Entities:**
|
||
- **Problems:**
|
||
- PR-00123: Economic Inequality
|
||
- PR-00234: Household Financial Insecurity
|
||
- PR-00345: Unemployment and Underemployment
|
||
- PR-00456: Housing Unaffordability
|
||
- **Solutions:**
|
||
- SO-00123: Economic Policy Interventions
|
||
- SO-00234: Social Safety Nets
|
||
- SO-00345: Financial Literacy Programs
|
||
- SO-00456: Affordable Housing Policy
|
||
- **Organizations:**
|
||
- ORG-00012: Federal Reserve System
|
||
- ORG-00034: Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
||
- ORG-00056: U.S. Census Bureau
|
||
- ORG-00078: Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
||
- **Other Data Sources:**
|
||
- DS-00001: WHO Global Health Observatory
|
||
- DS-00002: UN Sustainable Development Goals
|
||
- DS-00023: OECD Data
|
||
- DS-00032: World Bank Indicators
|
||
|
||
**External Resources:**
|
||
- **Alternative Sources:**
|
||
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/data/
|
||
- U.S. Census Bureau: https://data.census.gov/
|
||
- World Bank Data: https://data.worldbank.org/
|
||
- **Complementary Sources:**
|
||
- OECD Data: https://data.oecd.org/
|
||
- Eurostat: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat
|
||
- IMF Data: https://www.imf.org/en/Data
|
||
- **Source Comparison Studies:**
|
||
- Not specified
|
||
|
||
### Additional Documentation
|
||
|
||
**User Guides:**
|
||
- FRED API Documentation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/
|
||
- Series Search: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/search
|
||
- Data Download Guide: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/series_observations.html
|
||
|
||
**Research Using This Source:**
|
||
- 100,000+ citations in academic research (Google Scholar)
|
||
- Widely used in Federal Reserve research publications, academic papers, policy reports
|
||
|
||
**Methodology Papers:**
|
||
- BLS Handbook of Methods: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/
|
||
- Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Methodology: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Cataloger Notes
|
||
|
||
**Internal Notes:**
|
||
- Excellent source; high authority; essential for Substrate economic wellbeing domain
|
||
- API well-documented, stable, and easy to use
|
||
- Selected 10 core wellbeing indicators from 1.3M+ series for focused tracking
|
||
- Weekly financial stress indicator provides high-frequency wellbeing monitoring
|
||
- Consider adding state-level economic indicators as separate entries or expanded coverage
|
||
|
||
**To Do:**
|
||
- [ ] Add related organizations (Federal Reserve System, BLS, Census Bureau, BEA)
|
||
- [ ] Cross-reference with relevant Problems and Solutions
|
||
- [ ] Create update script for regular data refreshes
|
||
- [ ] Test update script with sample API calls
|
||
- [ ] Monitor API changes and rate limit compliance
|
||
|
||
**Questions for Review:**
|
||
- Should we expand to more indicators beyond core 10 wellbeing series?
|
||
- How to handle state-level data (separate source entry vs. expanded coverage)?
|
||
- Should we create separate entries for different economic domains (labor, housing, finance)?
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
**END OF SOURCE RECORD**
|
||
```
|