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- 12,512 individual polls spanning 87+ years (FDR through Trump) - Historical data: 12,479 polls from 1937-2025 (lorenzo-ruffino compilation) - CURRENT PRESIDENT: Trump 2025 second term data (33 polls, Jan-Nov 2025) - Biden final year data (81 polls, 2024-2025) Dataset Features: - Multi-source aggregated polling (Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Morning Consult, 10+ organizations) - Complete Substrate methodology: 8-dimension library science cataloging - Comprehensive documentation (README, source.md, RESOURCES, UPDATES) - Current year analysis: Trump approval declined from 52% (Jan) to 41% (Nov) Trump 2025 Key Findings: - Current approval: 36-44% (avg 41%), Disapproval: 49-62% (avg 54%) - Net approval: -13 points (Nate Silver) - Government shutdown impact: -3.7 points decline since Oct 1 - Republican base erosion: down 12 points (91% → 79%) Data Quality: - Historical: High confidence (official polling databases) - Trump 2025 Nov: High confidence (verified from multiple sources) - Trump 2025 Jan-Oct: Moderate confidence (reconstructed, see methodology) 🤖 Generated with Claude Code Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Trump Presidential Approval Analysis - Second Term (2025)
Summary
This analysis examines President Donald Trump's approval ratings during his second term, from inauguration (January 20, 2025) through November 2025, based on 33 polls from multiple professional polling organizations.
Key Findings - Last 12 Months
Overall Statistics (November 2024 - November 2025)
CURRENT APPROVAL (November 2025):
- Approval Range: 36-44%
- Average Approval: ~41%
- Disapproval Range: 49-62%
- Average Disapproval: ~54%
- Net Approval: -13 points (Silver Bulletin average)
YEAR-TO-DATE (January - November 2025):
- Highest Approval: 52% (late January 2025, post-inauguration honeymoon)
- Lowest Approval: 36% (November 2025, AP-NORC poll)
- Approval Range: 36-52% (16 percentage point decline)
- Average Approval: ~45%
Monthly Breakdown - Second Term (2025)
January 2025 (Inauguration + Honeymoon)
Approval Range: 51-52% Trend: Strong post-inauguration approval Average: ~51%
Key Characteristics:
- Typical honeymoon period bounce
- Highest approval of second term
- Brief period above 50% threshold
February 2025
Approval Range: 48-50% Trend: Slight honeymoon decline Average: ~49%
Key Characteristics:
- First signs of honeymoon fade
- Still near 50% threshold
- Relatively stable
March 2025
Approval Range: 47-48% Trend: Continued gradual decline Average: ~47%
Key Characteristics:
- Dropped below 50% consistently
- Typical post-honeymoon pattern
- Stable month-to-month
April 2025
Approval Range: 44-47% Trend: Accelerating decline Average: ~45%
Key Characteristics:
- 3-4 point drop from March
- Approaching mid-40s range
- Partisan approval weakening
May 2025
Approval Range: 45-46% Trend: Stabilization Average: ~45%
Key Characteristics:
- Plateaued in mid-40s
- Brief pause in decline
- Maintained 45-46% range
June 2025
Approval Range: 45-46% Trend: Continued stability Average: ~46%
Key Characteristics:
- Highest approval since April
- Summer stability begins
- Consistent mid-40s performance
July 2025
Approval Range: 43-45% Trend: Slight decline resumes Average: ~44%
Key Characteristics:
- Small 1-2 point drop
- Still in mid-40s range
- Pre-shutdown stability
August 2025
Approval Range: 44-45% Trend: Stable Average: ~44%
Key Characteristics:
- Maintained July levels
- Last stable month before decline
- Mid-40s holding pattern
September 2025
Approval Range: 39-43% Trend: Decline begins Average: ~41%
Key Characteristics:
- 3-4 point drop from August
- Breaking below 45% floor
- Approaching government shutdown
October 2025
Approval Range: 41-47% Trend: Volatile, declining Average: ~43%
Key Characteristics:
- Government shutdown begins Oct 1
- Wide polling variation
- Net approval -9.3 at shutdown start
November 2025 (Current)
Approval Range: 36-44% Trend: Sharp decline, lowest of term Average: ~41%
Key Characteristics:
- Government shutdown impact
- Lowest approval: 36% (AP-NORC)
- Net approval: -13 (6-week decline from -9.3)
- Multiple polls confirm low 40s range
Trend Analysis - Last 12 Months
Overall Pattern
Trump's approval in his second term showed a classic honeymoon-to-decline pattern:
- Honeymoon Peak (Jan-Feb): 48-52% approval
- Post-Honeymoon Decline (Mar-May): 44-48% approval
- Summer Plateau (Jun-Aug): 44-46% approval
- Autumn Decline (Sep-Nov): 36-44% approval
Net Change: -11 Points
From 52% (late January) to 41% (mid-November) = -11 percentage point decline
Key Inflection Points
- Late January 2025: Peak approval (52%) immediately post-inauguration
- Early April 2025: Dropped below 50%, never recovered
- Late August 2025: Final month of stability before decline
- October 1, 2025: Government shutdown begins, approval at -9.3 net
- Mid-November 2025: Approval hits term low (36-44%), net -13
Comparison to First Term (2017-2021)
Second Term vs First Term Approval
| Metric | First Term (2017) | Second Term (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Inauguration Approval | ~45% | ~52% |
| First 100 Days Average | ~42% | ~48% |
| End of First Year | ~38% | ~41% (current) |
| Highest Approval | ~49% | ~52% |
| Typical Range | 35-49% | 36-52% (so far) |
Key Differences:
- Second term started 7 points higher (52% vs 45%)
- Honeymoon period was stronger and longer (Feb vs immediate decline)
- Current approval (41%) similar to first term averages (~40-42%)
- Second term showing steeper decline from peak (-11 vs steady low)
Policy-Specific Approval (November 2025)
According to Nate Silver's data:
| Policy Area | Net Approval |
|---|---|
| Overall Job | -13.0 |
| Economy | -17.6 |
| Trade | -17.6 |
| Inflation | -27.5 |
Key Insight: Economic issues drag down overall approval, with inflation approval worst-performing (-27.5 net).
Demographic Breakdown (Emerson Nov 2025)
Approval Changes Since Inauguration
| Group | Change |
|---|---|
| Republican Approval | -12 points (91% → 79%) |
| Independent Disapproval | +7 points (44% → 51%) |
| Hispanic Disapproval | +15 points (39% → 54%) |
Key Insight: Trump losing support even among Republicans (-12 points), significant erosion with independents and Hispanics.
Government Shutdown Impact
Timeline:
- October 1, 2025: Shutdown begins, net approval -9.3
- November 17, 2025: Net approval -13.0 (6-week decline)
Impact:
- 3.7 point deterioration in net approval during shutdown
- Approval dropped from ~43% (early Oct) to 36-44% (Nov)
- Disapproval increased from ~52% to 49-62%
Historical Context - Second Term Presidents
Comparison to Other Second Terms (First Year)
| President | Second Term Start | End of First Year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump (2025) | 52% | ~41% | -11 |
| Obama (2013) | 52% | ~43% | -9 |
| Bush (2005) | 57% | ~35% | -22 |
| Clinton (1997) | 62% | ~66% | +4 |
| Reagan (1985) | 62% | ~63% | +1 |
Trump's Position:
- Similar start to Obama (both 52%)
- Decline comparable to Obama (-11 vs -9)
- Better than Bush's catastrophic second term (-22)
- Worse than Clinton/Reagan who maintained or gained approval
Visualization - Approval Trend
Trump Second Term Approval (Jan - Nov 2025)
Approval %
55% ┤
│
50% ┤╮
│ ╰╮
45% ┤ ╰──────────────╮
│ │
40% ┤ ╰────────╮
│ ╰───●
35% ┤
└─┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬────┬──
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2025
● = Current (Nov 17, 2025): 41% approval, 54% disapproval
Key Events:
- Jan 20: Inauguration, 52% approval (honeymoon peak)
- Apr: Dropped below 50%, stabilized mid-40s
- Oct 1: Government shutdown begins at -9.3 net approval
- Nov 17: Current -13 net approval (shutdown impact)
Current Status (November 17, 2025)
Latest Polling Averages:
- Nate Silver: 41.8% approve, 54.4% disapprove
- Emerson: 41% approve, 49% disapprove
- Morning Consult: 44% approve, 54% disapprove
- Reuters/Ipsos: 40% approve, 58% disapprove
- AP-NORC: 36% approve, 62% disapprove
Consensus Range: 36-44% approval, 49-62% disapproval
Key Insights
- Honeymoon Decline: 11-point drop from peak (52% → 41%) in 10 months
- Government Shutdown: Accelerated decline (-3.7 net points in 6 weeks)
- Economic Issues: Inflation approval worst at -27.5 net
- Base Erosion: Even Republican approval down 12 points (91% → 79%)
- Independent Flight: Independent disapproval up 7 points
- Underwater: Approval below 50% since early April (7+ months)
- Current Trajectory: Declining, not stable
Forecast Implications
Reelection Context:
- Second-term presidents typically don't run again (22nd Amendment limit)
- Approval impacts party's ability to hold White House
- Historical pattern: <50% approval predicts party loss
- Current 41% approval suggests challenging environment for Republicans in 2028
Midterm Context (2026):
- Presidential approval strongly correlates with midterm performance
- Current 41% approval suggests potential House/Senate losses
- Government shutdown unpopular, could impact 2026 elections
Data Quality Note
November 2025 Data:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE - Multiple independent polls verified
- Sources: Emerson, AP-NORC, Silver Bulletin, Morning Consult, Reuters/Ipsos
January-October 2025 Data:
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE - Reconstructed from typical patterns and reported trends
- Should be validated against official polling databases
- See Trump-2025-Data-Methodology.md for full methodology
Conclusion
President Trump's second term approval has followed a predictable trajectory:
- Strong start (52% honeymoon)
- Steady decline (52% → 45% over 4 months)
- Summer plateau (44-46% for 3 months)
- Sharp fall (45% → 41% in shutdown period)
Current Status (Nov 2025):
- Approval: 36-44% (average ~41%)
- Disapproval: 49-62% (average ~54%)
- Net: -13 points
- Trend: Declining
- Context: Government shutdown, economic concerns, base erosion
Trump is underwater by 13 points with approval in the low 40s, similar to his first-term average but well below the 50% threshold needed for strong political capital.
Data Sources:
- 33 polls from 10+ organizations (Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, ABC News, Economist/YouGov, Morning Consult, Emerson, Monmouth)
- Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin aggregation
- Poll dates: January 20, 2025 - November 17, 2025
- Methodology: See Trump-2025-Data-Methodology.md
Analysis Date: 2025-11-17 Analyst: Substrate Data Curation