9a181ae43b
Added SUMMARY.md executive summaries to all 7 datasets with: - 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE section at top - 12-word one-liners for quick reference - Confidence levels and caveats - Extensive authoritative linking - Alternative Estimates sections where applicable - Changelogs for revision tracking Updated Data/README.md with: - Quick reference table of all datasets - Full schema documentation - Confidence level guidelines - Anti-patterns to avoid Datasets standardized: - Knowledge-Worker-Global-Salaries (gold standard) - US-GDP - US-Inflation - US-Presidential-Approval - Bay-Area-COVID-Wastewater - US-Common-Metrics - Pulitzer-Prize-Winners 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings: Executive Summary
🎯 BEST ESTIMATE
| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Approval (Nov 2025) | 36-44% (avg ~41%) | 95% | November 2025 |
| Trump Net Approval | -13 points | 95% | November 2025 |
| Historical Dataset | 12,479 polls (1937-2025) | 99% | November 2025 |
One-liner: Trump's approval averages ~41% (net -13); dataset covers 12,479 polls since 1937.
Caveat: Polling variation of 3-7 points across organizations; use aggregates, not single polls.
The Big Picture
Presidential approval ratings are the primary measure of public confidence in the president. Gallup has tracked this since 1937 using a consistent question: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way [President] is handling his job as President?"
This dataset contains:
- 12,479 individual polls spanning 87+ years
- 14 presidents from FDR through Trump (second term)
- Multiple pollsters for cross-validation
Why This Number Matters
Presidential approval is a leading indicator for:
- Legislative success: High approval = political capital for agenda
- Reelection chances: Presidents above 50% almost always win reelection
- Market confidence: Investor and business sentiment
- Governing ability: Approval affects congressional cooperation
- Historical legacy: Approval shapes how presidents are remembered
Current President: Donald Trump (Second Term)
November 2025 Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Approval | 36-44% (avg ~41%) | Declining |
| Disapproval | 49-62% (avg ~54%) | Rising |
| Net Approval | -13 points | Down from -9 in Oct |
| Peak Approval | 52% (Jan 2025) | -11 points from peak |
2025 Trajectory
| Period | Approval Range | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-Feb | 48-52% | Honeymoon period |
| Mar-May | 44-48% | Post-honeymoon decline |
| Jun-Aug | 44-46% | Summer plateau |
| Sep-Nov | 36-44% | Government shutdown impact |
Key Factors:
- Government shutdown began October 1, 2025
- Republican approval down 12 points (91% → 79%) since inauguration
- Economic approval underwater: Economy -17.6, Inflation -27.5
Historical Reference Points
Highest Approval Ratings Ever
| President | Approval | Date | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush | 90% | Sept 2001 | Post-9/11 rally |
| Harry Truman | 87% | June 1945 | WWII victory |
| John F. Kennedy | 83% | April 1961 | Early presidency |
Lowest Approval Ratings Ever
| President | Approval | Date | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Truman | 22% | Feb 1952 | Korean War |
| Richard Nixon | 24% | Aug 1974 | Watergate |
| George W. Bush | 25% | Oct 2008 | Financial crisis |
| Jimmy Carter | 28% | June 1979 | Economic crisis |
Typical Approval Ranges
| Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 60-80% | Honeymoon or crisis rally |
| 50-60% | Strong; likely reelection |
| 40-50% | Mixed; competitive |
| 30-40% | Weak; difficult governance |
| Below 30% | Historical crisis territory |
How to Interpret Polling Data
Net Approval
Net Approval = Approval % - Disapproval %
- Positive (+5 or higher): More approve than disapprove
- Around zero: Evenly divided
- Negative (-5 or lower): More disapprove than approve
Polling Variation
Different pollsters show 3-7 point variation due to:
- Sample type (adults vs. registered vs. likely voters)
- Methodology (phone vs. online)
- Question wording and order
- Timing within news cycle
Best practice: Use averages from aggregators like RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight (when available).
Data Sources
| Source | What It Provides | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Gallup | Gold standard since 1937 | Historical Trends |
| American Presidency Project | UC Santa Barbara archive | Approval Data |
| Roper Center | Cornell poll archive | Research Access |
| RealClearPolitics | Current poll aggregation | Trump Approval |
Primary Dataset Source
This Substrate dataset aggregates from Lorenzo Ruffino's research compilation which includes:
- 15+ professional polling organizations
- Consistent data structure for cross-temporal analysis
- Open source with community validation
Confidence Assessment
| Component | Confidence | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Historical Data (1937-2020) | 99% | Fully validated, Gallup gold standard |
| Recent Polls (2021-2025) | 95% | Multiple organizations, subject to revision |
| Current Month | 90% | Polling variation; use aggregates |
Presidential approval data is among the most reliable polling data available due to:
- 87+ years of consistent methodology
- Multiple cross-validating sources
- Scientific sampling standards
- Institutional validation
Known Limitations
- Polling variation: 3-7 point spread across organizations
- Sample composition: Adults vs. registered vs. likely voters differ
- Methodology changes: Online polling introduced post-2000
- Response rates: Declining over time, may affect representativeness
- Timing sensitivity: Polls capture specific moments; events shift opinion
Supporting Documentation
| Document | Description |
|---|---|
| README.md | Full dataset documentation |
| Trump-Approval-Analysis-2025.md | Current president analysis |
| Historical-Approval-Polls-1937-2024.csv | 12,479 individual polls |
| Historical-Net-Approval-First-Terms.csv | First-term comparison data |
| Trump-Approval-2025.csv | Current year polling data |
Research Metadata
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Dataset Coverage | 1937-2025 (87+ years) |
| Total Polls | 12,479 individual polls |
| Presidents Covered | 14 (FDR through Trump) |
| Update Frequency | Continuous (as polls publish) |
| Confidence Level | 95-99% (professional polling data) |
Changelog
| Date | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | Added SUMMARY.md with executive overview | Standardizing Substrate datasets to "Answer First" schema |
| November 2025 | Updated Trump 2025 data | Current polling integration |
| October 2025 | Initial dataset creation | Comprehensive approval data collection |
External Resources
- Gallup Presidential Approval Center - Historical data and analysis
- RealClearPolitics Approval Tracker - Current aggregates
- American Presidency Project - UC Santa Barbara archive
- Roper Center - Cornell polling archive