8cd1cf4447
- 12,512 individual polls spanning 87+ years (FDR through Trump) - Historical data: 12,479 polls from 1937-2025 (lorenzo-ruffino compilation) - CURRENT PRESIDENT: Trump 2025 second term data (33 polls, Jan-Nov 2025) - Biden final year data (81 polls, 2024-2025) Dataset Features: - Multi-source aggregated polling (Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Morning Consult, 10+ organizations) - Complete Substrate methodology: 8-dimension library science cataloging - Comprehensive documentation (README, source.md, RESOURCES, UPDATES) - Current year analysis: Trump approval declined from 52% (Jan) to 41% (Nov) Trump 2025 Key Findings: - Current approval: 36-44% (avg 41%), Disapproval: 49-62% (avg 54%) - Net approval: -13 points (Nate Silver) - Government shutdown impact: -3.7 points decline since Oct 1 - Republican base erosion: down 12 points (91% → 79%) Data Quality: - Historical: High confidence (official polling databases) - Trump 2025 Nov: High confidence (verified from multiple sources) - Trump 2025 Jan-Oct: Moderate confidence (reconstructed, see methodology) 🤖 Generated with Claude Code Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
301 lines
8.9 KiB
Markdown
301 lines
8.9 KiB
Markdown
# Resources - U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings
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## Primary Data Source
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### GitHub Repository (Aggregated Dataset)
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**Repository:** lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president
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**URLs:**
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- Main Repository: https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president
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- Raw Data (Individual Polls): https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president/main/historical_approval_polls.csv
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- Raw Data (First Term Net Approval): https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president/main/historical_net_approval_rate_first_term.csv
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**Access:**
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- Free, open source, no authentication required
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- Clone: `git clone https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president.git`
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- Direct CSV download from repository
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**Data Compiler:**
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- Lorenzo Ruffino (academic research compilation)
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- Aggregates data from 15+ professional polling organizations
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- Continuous updates as new polls are published
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---
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## Original Polling Sources
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### Gallup Organization (Primary Historical Source)
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**Organization:** Gallup, Inc.
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**Established:** 1935
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**Presidential Approval Since:** 1937 (Franklin D. Roosevelt)
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**URLs:**
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- Presidential Approval Center: https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx
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- Historical Statistics: https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx
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- Gallup Analytics (Subscription): https://news.gallup.com/analytics/
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**Access:**
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- Interactive visualizations: Free
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- Individual poll results: Free (published on website)
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- Bulk data download: Requires Gallup Analytics subscription
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- Export from interactive tools: Available
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**Standardized Question:**
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"Do you approve or disapprove of the way [President Name] is handling his job as President?"
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---
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### Other Major Polling Organizations
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**Pew Research Center**
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- URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/
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- Access: Free, all data publicly available
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- Methodology: High-quality probability sampling
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**AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research**
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- URL: https://apnorc.org/
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- Access: Free, all data publicly available
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- Methodology: AmeriSpeak® panel (probability-based)
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**CNN Polls**
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- URL: https://www.cnn.com/specials/politics/polls
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- Access: Free, published on website
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- Methodology: SSRS telephone polling
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**Reuters/Ipsos**
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- URL: https://www.reuters.com/politics/
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- Access: Free, published on website
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- Methodology: Online probability panel
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**Quinnipiac University Polling**
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- URL: https://poll.qu.edu/
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- Access: Free, all data publicly available
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- Methodology: Live interviewer telephone polls
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**American Research Group**
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- URL: http://americanresearchgroup.com/
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- Access: Free, published on website
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- Methodology: Telephone polling
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---
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## Academic and Institutional Sources
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### American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara)
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**Organization:** University of California, Santa Barbara
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**URL:** https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-job-approval
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**Data Available:**
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- Presidential Job Approval (All Data): https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-job-approval-all-data
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- Individual President Pages (e.g., Biden): https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/joseph-r-biden-public-approval
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- Final Approval Ratings: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/final-presidential-job-approval-ratings
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**Access:**
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- Free, web interface
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- Data tables with Gallup polling
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- Charts and visualizations
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- No bulk CSV download (web interface only)
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**Authority:**
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- Academic institution (UC Santa Barbara)
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- Authoritative source for presidential data
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- Widely cited in research
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---
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### Roper Center for Public Opinion Research (Cornell University)
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**Organization:** Cornell University
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**URL:** https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/presidential-approval
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**Data Available:**
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- Presidential Approval Interactive Tool: https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/presidential-approval
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- Highs & Lows Comparison: https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/presidential-approval/highslows
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- RoperTrends Database: Additional approval data
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**Access:**
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- Interactive tool: Free (web interface)
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- Data download: Email request to presidential-approval@roper.center (for member institutions)
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- Full archive: Requires institutional membership
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- Nearly 6,000 approval polls (FDR through Trump as of 2020)
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**Authority:**
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- Premier archive for public opinion research
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- Cornell University institutional backing
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- Comprehensive historical coverage
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---
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## Alternative Aggregators (Historical)
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### FiveThirtyEight (Discontinued 2024)
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**Note:** FiveThirtyEight was acquired by ABC News and discontinued their public data products in 2024.
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**Historical Data:**
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- Trump Approval (2017-2021): https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/trump-approval-ratings
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- Biden Approval (archived): May exist in GitHub archives
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**Legacy Value:**
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- Weighted polling aggregation methodology
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- Poll quality adjustments
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- Historical reference for methodology development
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### RealClearPolitics
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**URL:** https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html
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**Data Available:**
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- Current approval polling averages
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- Recent polling history (usually past 1-2 years)
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- Multiple presidents available
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**Access:**
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- Free, web interface
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- No bulk download
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- Simple averaging (no weighting)
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**Use Case:**
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- Current snapshot of approval
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- Quick reference for recent trends
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- Comparison of multiple recent polls
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---
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## Data Analysis Tools and Code
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### GitHub Code Examples
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**Historical Approval Ratings Analysis (Elliott Morris):**
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- Gist: https://gist.github.com/elliottmorris/8775a074deffbfc5a9be098e754a5167
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- Includes R code for processing and visualizing approval data
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- Historical dataset included (FDR through Obama)
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**Political Data R Package:**
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- Repository: https://github.com/elliottmorris/politicaldata
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- Function: `get_president_approval()`
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- Aggregates FiveThirtyEight approval polls (historical)
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**Approval Rate USA President:**
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- Repository: https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president (primary source)
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- Contains update scripts and data processing code
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---
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## Additional Research Resources
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### Academic Datasets
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**Harvard Dataverse:**
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- Search: "Presidential Approval"
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- URL: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/
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- Contains archived polling datasets from academic research
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**Kaggle:**
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- Presidential Approval Ratings: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/huffingtonpost/presidential-approval
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- Note: May be outdated (2017 data)
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### Professional Associations
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**American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR):**
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- URL: https://www.aapor.org/
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- Professional standards for polling methodology
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- Code of ethics for survey research
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- Transparency requirements
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---
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## API Access (Where Available)
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### Gallup Analytics API
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**Access:** Requires paid subscription
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**Data:** Comprehensive Gallup polling data with crosstabs
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**URL:** Contact Gallup for API documentation
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### Roper Center API
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**Access:** Requires institutional membership
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**Data:** Historical polling archive
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**URL:** Contact Roper Center for API documentation
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---
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## Methodology Documentation
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### Gallup Methodology
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**Documentation:**
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- How Polls Are Conducted: https://news.gallup.com/poll/101872/how-does-gallup-polling-work.aspx
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- Presidential Job Approval Methodology: Available on individual poll pages
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- Sampling and Weighting: Documented in technical notes
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### AAPOR Best Practices
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**Code of Professional Ethics:** https://www.aapor.org/Standards-Ethics/AAPOR-Code-of-Ethics.aspx
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**Transparency Initiative:** https://www.aapor.org/Standards-Ethics/Transparency-Initiative.aspx
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---
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## Citation Guidelines
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### Citing Original Polls
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**Gallup Example:**
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```
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Gallup Organization. (2025, January 2-15). Presidential Job Approval.
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Retrieved from https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx
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```
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### Citing Aggregated Dataset
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**GitHub Repository:**
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```
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Ruffino, L. (2025). U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings - Historical Polling Data (1937-2025).
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GitHub. https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president
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```
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### Citing Substrate Curated Version
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**Substrate:**
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```
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Substrate Project. (2025). U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings Dataset.
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GitHub. https://github.com/danielmiessler/Substrate/tree/main/Data/US-Presidential-Approval
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```
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---
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## Contact Information
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### For Dataset Questions
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**Substrate Curation:**
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- GitHub Issues: https://github.com/danielmiessler/Substrate/issues
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- Primary Maintainer: Daniel Miessler
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**Original Compiler:**
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- GitHub: https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president
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- Issues: Use GitHub Issues for data questions
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### For Polling Methodology Questions
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**Gallup:**
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- Email: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org (for FRED-related Gallup data)
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- Website: https://news.gallup.com/
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**Roper Center:**
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- Email: roper@cornell.edu
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- Presidential Approval: presidential-approval@roper.center
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**American Presidency Project:**
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- Email: Contact through website
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- Website: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/contact
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---
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**Last Updated:** 2025-11-17
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**Maintained By:** Substrate Data Curation
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