Substrate/Data/US-Presidential-Approval/README.md

U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings Dataset

Overview

This directory contains authoritative U.S. presidential approval ratings data spanning from Franklin D. Roosevelt (1937) through Joe Biden (2025), compiled from multiple polling organizations with a primary focus on Gallup's consistent methodology. Presidential approval ratings are one of the most important indicators of presidential performance and public sentiment toward government.

What's Inside

• Historical-Approval-Polls-1937-2024.csv - Individual approval polls (12,479 data points, 1937-2025)
• Historical-Net-Approval-First-Terms.csv - Daily average net approval ratings for first-term presidents (1,460 days)
• Trump-Approval-2025.csv - CURRENT PRESIDENT Trump second term approval polls (33 polls, Jan-Nov 2025)
• Biden-Approval-2024-2025.csv - Biden final year approval polls (81 polls, Jan 2024 - Jan 2025)
• Trump-Approval-Analysis-2025.md - CURRENT YEAR ANALYSIS Trump approval trend analysis
• Trump-2025-Data-Methodology.md - Data collection methodology for 2025 polls
• Biden-Approval-Analysis-2024-2025.md - Biden final year trend analysis
• README.md - This file
• UPDATES.md - Change log for data updates
• RESOURCES.md - Data sources and access information
• source.md - Detailed library science metadata and cataloging

Data Source Research

How This Source Was Identified

Research across multiple authoritative sources evaluated:

1. Gallup Organization's historical presidential approval data (1937-present)
2. American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) aggregated polling
3. Roper Center for Public Opinion Research archives
4. FiveThirtyEight polling aggregation (discontinued 2024)
5. Individual polling organizations (Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, etc.)
6. Academic research datasets and GitHub repositories
7. Polling methodology and consistency standards
8. Public accessibility and data formats

Primary Source Selected: Multiple Polling Organizations (Aggregated)

Primary Data Source:

• GitHub Repository: https://github.com/lorenzo-ruffino/approval_rate_usa_president
• Data Compiler: Lorenzo Ruffino (academic research compilation)
• Base Data: Multiple polling organizations including Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, and others

Why This Source:

• Comprehensive coverage from 1937 to present
• Includes data from 14 presidents across 87+ years
• Contains detailed poll-level data (12,000+ individual polls)
• Aggregates multiple polling organizations for robust coverage
• Open source and publicly accessible
• Includes metadata: polling dates, sample sizes, polling organizations
• Follows consistent data structure for cross-temporal analysis

Historical Authority: Gallup Organization

• Gold standard for presidential approval tracking since 1937
• Uses consistent question: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way [President] is handling his job as President?"
• Professional probability-based sampling methodology
• Published continuously for 87+ years
• Used by Federal Reserve, media, and policymakers

Why This Source Is Reputable

Authority & Credibility

1. Gallup as Gold Standard

   • Established 1935, pioneered scientific polling methodology
   • Consistent presidential approval question since FDR (1937)
   • Professional polling organization with rigorous methodology
   • Widely cited by academics, government, media
   • No partisan affiliation or commercial bias

2. Multi-Source Aggregation

   • Dataset includes polls from 15+ professional polling organizations
   • Cross-validation across multiple pollsters reduces single-source bias
   • Sample sizes typically 1,000+ respondents per poll
   • All included polls use probability-based sampling with live interviewers (phone) or high-quality online panels

3. Scientific Rigor

   • Standardized approval/disapproval question format
   • Documented sample sizes, polling dates, and margins of error
   • Representative national samples (U.S. adults, registered voters, likely voters)
   • Transparency in methodology and data collection

4. Institutional Validation

   • American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) maintains official Gallup data
   • Roper Center (Cornell University) archives all major polls
   • Academic researchers use this data for peer-reviewed publications
   • Federal Reserve and government agencies track presidential approval

5. Temporal Consistency

   • 87+ years of continuous data (1937-2025)
   • 12,000+ individual polls across 14 presidents
   • Allows for robust cross-presidential comparisons
   • Captures approval trends through all major historical events

6. Public Accessibility

   • Open source data available on GitHub
   • No paywalls or institutional access requirements
   • Reproducible research enabled
   • Community validation and error correction possible

Dataset Specifications

Coverage

Individual Polls (Historical-Approval-Polls-1937-2024.csv):

• Geographic: United States (national samples)
• Temporal: 1937 - January 2025 (87+ years)
• Polls: 12,479 individual approval polls
• Presidents: 14 presidents (FDR through Biden)
• Latest: Biden approval at 37-41% (January 2025, multiple polls)

First-Term Net Approval (Historical-Net-Approval-First-Terms.csv):

• Coverage: First 1,460 days of presidency (4 years)
• Presidents: 14 presidents with first-term data
• Metric: Daily average net approval (approval % - disapproval %)
• Format: Time-series indexed by day number (1-1460)

Recent Biden Data (Biden-Approval-2024-2025.csv):

• Temporal: January 2024 - January 2025
• Polls: 81 individual polls
• Organizations: Gallup, AP-NORC, CNN, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, American Research Group, Marquette Law School, and others

Metrics

Individual Polls Dataset:

• President number and name
• Term number and term dates
• Poll start and end dates
• Polling organization
• Approval percentage
• Disapproval percentage
• No opinion/unsure percentage
• Sample size

First-Term Net Approval Dataset:

• Day number (1-1460 from inauguration)
• Net approval for each president (approval - disapproval)
• Comparable time-series across presidents

Data Quality

• Completeness: 87 years of continuous data; some gaps for early presidents
• Reliability: Professional polling organizations using scientific methodology
• Timeliness: Updated regularly as new polls are published
• Accessibility: CSV format, no authentication required, open source

Presidential Approval Context

Presidential approval ratings serve as:

• Political Capital Indicator: High approval enables legislative success
• Reelection Predictor: Approval >50% strongly correlates with reelection
• Public Confidence Measure: Reflects citizen trust in government
• Policy Effectiveness Signal: Approval responds to economic conditions, crises, policy outcomes
• Historical Benchmark: Enables comparison across administrations

Approval Rating Ranges

Typical Ranges:

• 60-80%: Honeymoon period, major crisis rally (9/11, Pearl Harbor)
• 50-60%: Strong approval, likely reelection
• 40-50%: Mixed approval, competitive reelection
• 30-40%: Weak approval, difficult governing environment
• Below 30%: Historical lows (Truman 1952, Nixon 1974)

Current Context (as of November 2025)

CURRENT PRESIDENT: Donald Trump (Second Term)

Trump Second Term Approval (November 2025):

• Current Approval: 36-44% (average ~41%)
• Current Disapproval: 49-62% (average ~54%)
• Net Approval: -13 points (Nate Silver average)
• Trend: Declining (government shutdown impact)
• Peak Approval: 52% (late January 2025, post-inauguration)
• Lowest Approval: 36% (November 2025, AP-NORC)
• Total Decline: -11 points from peak (52% → 41%)

Year-to-Date Pattern (2025):

• Jan-Feb: Honeymoon period (48-52% approval)
• Mar-May: Post-honeymoon decline (44-48%)
• Jun-Aug: Summer plateau (44-46%)
• Sep-Nov: Autumn decline (36-44%)

Key Factors:

• Government shutdown began October 1, 2025
• Net approval declined from -9.3 (Oct 1) to -13.0 (Nov 17)
• Republican approval down 12 points since inauguration (91% → 79%)
• Economic approval underwater: Economy -17.6, Inflation -27.5

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Previous President: Biden Approval Trend (Final Year)

January 2024: 33-41% (range across polls) Q1 2024: 37-46% (increased slightly) Q2 2024: 36-42% (relatively stable) Q3 2024: 36-44% (slight increase) Q4 2024: 36-42% (stable through election) January 2025: 36-41% (final approval ratings)

Key Observations:

• Biden's approval remained relatively stable 36-42% throughout final year
• Some polling variation based on organization and methodology
• Never exceeded 46% in 2024-2025 period
• Final approval ~40% consistent with term average

Key Presidential Approval Moments in Dataset

Highest Approval Ratings

• George W. Bush: 90% (September 2001, post-9/11 rally)
• Harry Truman: 87% (June 1945, WWII victory)
• John F. Kennedy: 83% (April 1961, early presidency)
• Dwight Eisenhower: 79% (December 1956)
• Lyndon Johnson: 79% (February 1964)

Lowest Approval Ratings

• Harry Truman: 22% (February 1952, Korean War)
• Richard Nixon: 24% (July-August 1974, Watergate)
• Jimmy Carter: 28% (June 1979, economic crisis)
• George W. Bush: 25% (October 2008, financial crisis)
• Donald Trump: 34% (December 2017)

Historical Inflection Points

• Pearl Harbor (December 1941): FDR approval surge to 84%
• Watergate (1973-1974): Nixon collapse from 67% to 24%
• 9/11 (September 2001): Bush surge from 51% to 90%
• Financial Crisis (2008): Bush decline from 37% to 25%
• COVID-19 (2020): Trump remained relatively stable 42-49%

Use Cases

This dataset supports:

• Political Science Research: Presidential performance analysis, election forecasting, public opinion dynamics
• Policy Analysis: Evaluating policy effectiveness through approval response
• Economic Correlation: Relationship between economic indicators and presidential approval
• Crisis Response Studies: How presidents gain or lose approval during national emergencies
• Comparative Administration Analysis: Cross-presidential performance comparisons
• Media Analysis: Presidential coverage impact on public opinion
• Substrate Integration: Supporting Claims, Arguments, and Plans with authoritative polling data

Data Interpretation Notes

1. Polling Variation:

   • Different polling organizations show 3-7 point variation
   • Sample composition (adults vs. registered voters vs. likely voters) affects results
   • Polling methodology (phone vs. online) introduces variation
   • Use multiple polls or aggregated averages for robust analysis

2. Approval vs. Job Performance:

   • Presidential approval is general sentiment, not policy-specific
   • Approval responds to economic conditions, crises, scandals, media coverage
   • High approval doesn't guarantee policy success; low approval doesn't guarantee failure
   • Approval is one indicator among many for presidential effectiveness

3. Temporal Dynamics:

   • "Honeymoon period": First 100 days typically show highest approval
   • Midterm decline: Approval often drops by second year
   • Rally effect: Crises (wars, attacks) temporarily boost approval
   • Late-term stability: Approval often stabilizes in fourth year

4. Net Approval:

   • Net approval = Approval % - Disapproval %
   • Positive net approval (>0%) indicates more approve than disapprove
   • Negative net approval (<0%) indicates more disapprove than approve
   • Net approval more sensitive to changes than approval alone

5. Sample Sizes:

   • Typical poll: 1,000-1,200 respondents
   • Margin of error: ±3-4 percentage points (95% confidence)
   • Smaller samples have larger margins of error
   • Look for trends across multiple polls, not single poll results

Maintenance

See UPDATES.md for detailed change log of data refreshes and updates.

Update Schedule:

• As Published: New polls added when released by polling organizations
• Weekly-Monthly: During active presidency, polls published frequently
• Continuous: Historical data maintained and validated

Next Recommended Update: Ongoing as new polling data is published

Comparison with Other Political Indicators

Presidential approval should be considered alongside:

• Congressional Approval: Typically lower than presidential (15-30%)
• Economic Indicators: GDP growth, unemployment, inflation correlate with approval
• Generic Ballot: Democratic vs. Republican preference for Congress
• Direction of Country: "Right track" vs. "wrong track" polling
• Policy-Specific Approval: Ratings on economy, foreign policy, healthcare, etc.

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Last Updated: 2025-11-17 Maintained By: Substrate Data Curation Update Frequency: Continuous (as polls are published) Data Coverage: 1937-2025 (87+ years, 12,000+ polls)