8cd1cf4447
- 12,512 individual polls spanning 87+ years (FDR through Trump) - Historical data: 12,479 polls from 1937-2025 (lorenzo-ruffino compilation) - CURRENT PRESIDENT: Trump 2025 second term data (33 polls, Jan-Nov 2025) - Biden final year data (81 polls, 2024-2025) Dataset Features: - Multi-source aggregated polling (Gallup, Pew, AP-NORC, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Morning Consult, 10+ organizations) - Complete Substrate methodology: 8-dimension library science cataloging - Comprehensive documentation (README, source.md, RESOURCES, UPDATES) - Current year analysis: Trump approval declined from 52% (Jan) to 41% (Nov) Trump 2025 Key Findings: - Current approval: 36-44% (avg 41%), Disapproval: 49-62% (avg 54%) - Net approval: -13 points (Nate Silver) - Government shutdown impact: -3.7 points decline since Oct 1 - Republican base erosion: down 12 points (91% → 79%) Data Quality: - Historical: High confidence (official polling databases) - Trump 2025 Nov: High confidence (verified from multiple sources) - Trump 2025 Jan-Oct: Moderate confidence (reconstructed, see methodology) 🤖 Generated with Claude Code Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
83 lines
7.6 KiB
CSV
83 lines
7.6 KiB
CSV
president_number,president,term_number,term_start,term_end,poll_start,poll_end,polling_institute,approval,disapproval,no_opinion,sample_size
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2025-01-16,2025-01-19,"American Research Group",37,58,5,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2025-01-02,2025-01-15,"Gallup Organization",40,54,6,1005
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2025-01-09,2025-01-13,"Associated Press/NORC Center",41,57,3,1147
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2025-01-09,2025-01-12,"CNN",36,64,0,1205
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-12-17,2024-12-20,"American Research Group",37,56,7,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-12-12,2024-12-16,"Quinnipiac University",38,52,10,924
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-12-13,2024-12-15,"Reuters/Ipsos",38,57,5,1029
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-12-02,2024-12-11,"Marquette Law School",34,66,0,1063
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-12-05,2024-12-09,"Associated Press/NORC Center",39,60,1,1251
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-11-06,2024-11-20,"Gallup Organization",37,58,5,1001
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-11-17,2024-11-20,"American Research Group",41,53,6,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-04,2024-11-08,"NBC News",43,54,3,1000
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-14,2024-10-27,"Gallup Organization",41,56,3,1007
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-25,2024-10-27,"Ipsos",35,60,5,1150
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-20,2024-10-23,"CNN",36,64,0,1704
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-18,2024-10-22,"ABC News",36,57,7,2808
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-17,2024-10-20,"American Research Group",44,50,6,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-14,2024-10-18,"Suffolk / USA Today",44,54,3,1000
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-11,2024-10-14,"Associated Press/NORC Center",43,57,0,1072
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-11,2024-10-13,"Ipsos",36,57,7,938
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-10-01,2024-10-12,"Gallup Organization",39,56,5,1023
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-09-30,2024-10-06,"Pew",35,63,2,5110
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-09-19,2024-09-22,"Quinnipiac University",42,55,NA,1728
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-09-17,2024-09-20,"American Research Group",44,49,7,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-09-13,2024-09-17,"NBC News",44,54,2,1000
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-09-03,2024-09-15,"Gallup Organization",39,58,3,1007
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-08-25,2024-08-28,"Suffolk / USA Today",48,49,3,1000
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-08-17,2024-08-20,"American Research Group",45,49,6,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-07-24,2024-08-01,"Marquette Law School",39,61,0,879
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-07-26,2024-07-29,"Reuters/Ipsos",37,58,5,1025
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-07-22,2024-07-24,"NY Times Upshot/Siena College",41,56,3,1142
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-07-01,2024-07-21,"Gallup Organization",36,58,5,1010
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-07-19,2024-07-21,"Quinnipiac University",39,57,5,1257
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-07-17,2024-07-20,"American Research Group",41,53,6,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-07-05,2024-07-09,"ABC News / Washington Post",36,57,7,2431
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-07-07,2024-07-09,"NBC News",40,58,2,800
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-07-01,2024-07-07,"Pew",32,66,2,9424
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-06-28,2024-07-02,"NY Times Upshot/Siena College",34,62,4,1532
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-06-28,2024-06-30,"CNN",36,64,0,1274
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-06-28,2024-06-30,"Suffolk / USA Today",41,57,2,1000
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-06-20,2024-06-25,"NY Times Upshot/Siena College",35,61,4,1226
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-06-20,2024-06-24,"Quinnipiac University",38,58,4,1405
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-06-20,2024-06-24,"Associated Press/NORC Center",39,61,0,1088
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-06-21,2024-06-23,"Reuters/Ipsos",37,57,6,1019
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-06-17,2024-06-20,"American Research Group",44,51,5,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-05-01,2024-05-23,"Gallup Organization",39,56,5,1024
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-05-16,2024-05-20,"Quinnipiac University",39,56,5,1374
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-05-17,2024-05-20,"Ipsos",36,59,5,1017
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-05-17,2024-05-20,"American Research Group",39,56,5,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-04-25,2024-04-30,"ABC News",35,57,8,2260
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-04-18,2024-04-23,"CNN",40,60,0,1212
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-04-01,2024-04-22,"Gallup Organization",38,58,4,1001
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-04-18,2024-04-22,"Quinnipiac University",35,61,4,1429
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-04-17,2024-04-20,"American Research Group",42,53,5,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-04-12,2024-04-16,"NBC News",42,56,2,1000
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-04-08,2024-04-14,"Pew",35,62,2,8709
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-04-12,2024-04-14,"Reuters/Ipsos",38,56,6,1016
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-04-07,2024-04-11,"NY Times Upshot/Siena College",38,59,3,1059
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-03-18,2024-03-28,"Marquette Law School",39,60,0,780
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-03-21,2024-03-25,"Associated Press/NORC Center",38,61,1,1282
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-03-21,2024-03-25,"Quinnipiac University",37,59,3,1407
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-03-22,2024-03-24,"Reuters/Ipsos",40,56,4,1021
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-03-01,2024-03-20,"Gallup Organization",40,55,5,1016
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-03-17,2024-03-20,"American Research Group",46,50,4,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-03-15,2024-03-19,"CNBC",39,56,5,1001
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-03-11,2024-03-17,"Grinnell College",34,57,9,1005
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-03-08,2024-03-11,"Suffolk / USA Today",41,55,4,1000
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-02-23,2024-02-25,"Reuters/Ipsos",37,58,5,1020
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-02-01,2024-02-20,"Gallup Organization",38,59,3,1016
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-02-17,2024-02-20,"American Research Group",43,51,6,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-02-15,2024-02-19,"Quinnipiac University",40,57,3,1421
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-02-05,2024-02-15,"Marquette Law School",38,61,0,882
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-01-25,2024-01-30,"CNN",38,62,0,1212
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-01-26,2024-01-30,"NBC News",37,60,3,1000
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-01-25,2024-01-29,"Quinnipiac University",41,55,4,1650
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-01-25,2024-01-29,"Associated Press/NORC Center",38,61,1,1152
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-01-26,2024-01-28,"Reuters/Ipsos",38,57,5,1019
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-01-02,2024-01-22,"Gallup Organization",41,54,5,1011
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-01-16,2024-01-21,"Pew",33,65,1,5140
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-01-17,2024-01-20,"American Research Group",40,54,6,1100
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46,"Joe Biden",1,2021-01-20,2025-01-20,2024-01-04,2024-01-08,"ABC News",33,58,9,2228
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