9a181ae43b
Added SUMMARY.md executive summaries to all 7 datasets with: - 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE section at top - 12-word one-liners for quick reference - Confidence levels and caveats - Extensive authoritative linking - Alternative Estimates sections where applicable - Changelogs for revision tracking Updated Data/README.md with: - Quick reference table of all datasets - Full schema documentation - Confidence level guidelines - Anti-patterns to avoid Datasets standardized: - Knowledge-Worker-Global-Salaries (gold standard) - US-GDP - US-Inflation - US-Presidential-Approval - Bay-Area-COVID-Wastewater - US-Common-Metrics - Pulitzer-Prize-Winners 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
206 lines
7.7 KiB
Markdown
206 lines
7.7 KiB
Markdown
# U.S. Inflation (CPI): Executive Summary
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---
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## 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE
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| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
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|--------|-------|------------|--------------|
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| **CPI-U Index (August 2025)** | **323.4** | 99% | October 2025 |
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| **Year-over-Year Inflation** | **~2.5%** | 99% | October 2025 |
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| **Fed Target** | **2.0%** | Reference | - |
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**One-liner:** U.S. inflation is ~2.5% (YoY), with CPI index at 323.4 (1982-84=100 baseline).
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**Caveat:** CPI measures urban consumers only (~93% of population); regional variation may differ significantly.
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---
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## The Big Picture
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The [Consumer Price Index (CPI)](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) is the primary measure of inflation in the United States—tracking changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. The [Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)](https://www.bls.gov/) produces this data monthly.
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**What the current numbers mean:**
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- A CPI of 323.4 means that goods costing $100 in 1982-84 now cost $323.40
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- At 2.5% annual inflation, prices double approximately every 28 years
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- Current inflation is near the [Federal Reserve's 2% target](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm)
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---
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## Why This Number Matters
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Inflation affects virtually every economic decision:
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- **Wages**: [Cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs)](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/colaseries.html) are tied to CPI
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- **Savings**: Determines whether your money gains or loses purchasing power
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- **Interest Rates**: The [Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/) adjusts rates based on inflation
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- **Contracts**: Many business and government contracts escalate with CPI
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- **Policy**: Trillions in Social Security, Medicare, and tax brackets adjust with CPI
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A [1% change in CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) affects billions of dollars in annual adjustments.
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---
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## Current Data Highlights
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### Recent Readings
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| Period | CPI Index | YoY Inflation | Source |
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|--------|-----------|---------------|--------|
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| August 2025 | [323.4](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) | ~2.5% | [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) |
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| June 2022 | 296.3 | 9.1% (peak) | [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) |
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| 1982-84 Avg | 100.0 | Baseline | [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) |
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| January 1947 | 21.5 | First obs. | [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) |
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### Long-Term Trend
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| Period | Average Annual Inflation |
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|--------|-------------------------|
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| 1947-2025 (Full) | ~3.5% |
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| 1990-2019 (Pre-COVID) | ~2.4% |
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| 2021-2023 (COVID Surge) | ~6.0% |
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| 2024-2025 (Current) | ~2.5% |
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---
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## How the Number Is Calculated
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The BLS uses a [Laspeyres price index](https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/calculation.htm):
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**CPI = (Cost of basket today / Cost of basket in base period) × 100**
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### The Market Basket
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| Category | Weight | Examples |
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|----------|--------|----------|
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| **Housing** | ~34% | Rent, utilities, furnishings |
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| **Food** | ~14% | Groceries, restaurants |
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| **Transportation** | ~16% | Vehicles, gas, insurance |
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| **Medical Care** | ~9% | Healthcare, drugs, insurance |
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| **Recreation** | ~5% | Entertainment, sports, hobbies |
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| **Education/Communication** | ~7% | Tuition, phones, internet |
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| **Other** | ~15% | Apparel, personal care |
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**Data Collection:**
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- ~80,000 prices collected monthly
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- 75 urban areas across the U.S.
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- Weights updated every 2 years from [Consumer Expenditure Survey](https://www.bls.gov/cex/)
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---
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## Key Inflation Rates to Know
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| Measure | What It Is | FRED ID |
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|---------|-----------|---------|
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| **Headline CPI** | All items | [CPIAUCSL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) |
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| **Core CPI** | Excludes food & energy | [CPILFESL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL) |
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| **PCE** | Fed's preferred measure | [PCEPI](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI) |
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| **Core PCE** | Fed's key target | [PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE) |
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**Why Core?** Food and energy prices are volatile. Core inflation shows underlying trends.
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**Why PCE?** The Federal Reserve targets [PCE inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI) rather than CPI because it accounts for substitution effects.
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---
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## Historical Inflation Episodes
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| Period | Peak Inflation | Cause |
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|--------|---------------|-------|
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| [1970s Stagflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) | 14.8% (1980) | Oil shocks, monetary policy |
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| [Volcker Shock](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/volcker.htm) | Fed raised rates to 20%+ | Broke inflation cycle |
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| [Great Moderation](https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/835/default.htm) | 2-3% (1990s-2000s) | Credible monetary policy |
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| [Great Recession](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) | Brief deflation (2009) | Financial crisis |
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| [COVID Surge](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) | 9.1% (June 2022) | Supply chain, stimulus |
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| **Current** | ~2.5% (2025) | Fed tightening working |
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---
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## Confidence Assessment
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| Component | Confidence | Explanation |
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|-----------|------------|-------------|
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| **Current CPI Index** | 99% | Official government statistic, gold standard |
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| **YoY Inflation Rate** | 99% | Direct calculation from CPI data |
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| **Historical Data** | 99%+ | Fully verified, minimal revisions |
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This is the most reliable inflation data available—produced by the U.S. government with rigorous methodology and complete transparency.
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---
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## Known Limitations
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1. **Substitution bias**: Fixed basket doesn't fully capture when consumers switch to cheaper alternatives
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2. **Quality adjustment**: Hard to account for product quality improvements over time
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3. **New products**: Slow to incorporate new goods (smartphones took years)
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4. **Geographic variation**: National average masks significant regional differences
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5. **Population**: Covers urban consumers only (~93% of U.S.)
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---
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## How to Calculate Inflation
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### Year-over-Year Rate
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```
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Inflation Rate = ((CPI_now - CPI_1year_ago) / CPI_1year_ago) × 100
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```
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### Convert Dollars Across Time
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```
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Real_value = Nominal_value × (CPI_target_year / CPI_original_year)
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```
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Example: $100 in 1984 equals ~$323 in 2025 purchasing power.
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---
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## Data Sources
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| Source | What It Provides | Link |
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|--------|-----------------|------|
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| [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) | Official CPI (primary authority) | [CPI Home](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) |
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| [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/) | Easy API access to BLS data | [CPIAUCSL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) |
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**Quick Access:**
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```bash
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# Download latest CPI data from FRED
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curl -L "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=CPIAUCSL" -o CPI-latest.csv
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```
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---
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## Supporting Documentation
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| Document | Description |
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|----------|-------------|
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| [US-Inflation-CPI-1947-2025.md](./US-Inflation-CPI-1947-2025.md) | Full dataset documentation |
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| [source.md](./source.md) | Detailed methodology |
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| [CPI-US-Monthly-1947-2025.csv](./CPI-US-Monthly-1947-2025.csv) | Monthly data (945 observations) |
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---
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## Research Metadata
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| Attribute | Value |
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|-----------|-------|
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| **Research Date** | October 2025 |
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| **Researcher** | Kai |
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| **Method** | Direct BLS/FRED data collection |
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| **Confidence Level** | 99% (official government statistic) |
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| **Known Gaps** | Pre-1947 data uses different methodology |
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---
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## Changelog
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| Date | Change | Reason |
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|------|--------|--------|
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| **December 2025** | Added SUMMARY.md with executive overview | Standardizing Substrate datasets to "Answer First" schema |
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| **October 2025** | Initial dataset creation | Comprehensive U.S. CPI data collection |
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---
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## External Resources
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- [BLS CPI FAQ](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm) - Common questions
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- [BLS Handbook of Methods](https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/) - Full methodology
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- [Fed Inflation Target](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) - Why 2%?
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- [CPI Inflation Calculator](https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm) - BLS tool
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