Substrate/Data/DE-Epistemic-Competence/DE-Epistemic-Competence.md

# DE Epistemic Competence

**Last Updated:** 2026-04-20
**Update Method:** Manual — PIAAC (OECD, ~decennial), Wissenschaftsbarometer (annual), Eurobarometer (periodic)
**Coverage:** Adult literacy, digital skills, science trust, fake news perception — Germany

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## 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE

| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
|--------|-------|------------|--------------|
| **Adult literacy score** | **284 / ~500** | 90% | 2023 (PIAAC) |
| **Adult numeracy score** | **299 / ~500** | 90% | 2023 (PIAAC) |
| **Adults below literacy Level 2** | **~21%** | 85% | 2023 (PIAAC) |
| **Trust in scientists** | **~60% "a lot/somewhat"** | 85% | 2024 (Wissenschaftsbarometer) |
| **Adults with basic+ digital skills** | **~70%** | 80% | 2019 (Eurostat) |
| **Feel able to identify fake news** | **~72%** | 70% | 2023 (Eurobarometer) |

**One-liner:** Germany above OECD average; 21% of adults lack functional literacy.

**Caveat:** Self-reported fake news identification confidence (72%) substantially overstates actual media literacy competence — experimental studies show most people cannot reliably identify disinformation.

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## Quick Context

Germany scores above OECD average on measured adult competencies (PIAAC 2023), but 21% of adults function below a literacy threshold sufficient for independent democratic participation. Science trust is moderate and declining. Self-assessed media literacy is high; actual competence is likely far lower.

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## Methodology Summary

**Approach:** PIAAC 2023 for direct competency measurement; Wissenschaftsbarometer for annual science trust tracking; Eurobarometer for EU-comparable media literacy perception data.

**Sources:**
- OECD PIAAC 2023: Programme for International Assessment of Adult Competencies (published Dec 2024)
- Wissenschaft im Dialog: Wissenschaftsbarometer 2024
- European Commission / Eurobarometer: Special surveys on media literacy and disinformation
- Eurostat isoc_sk_dskl_i: Digital skills self-assessment (2019 data, older series)

**Definition Used:** "Epistemic competence" = combination of literacy, numeracy, digital problem-solving, and science trust. PIAAC measures actual performance; Eurobarometer measures self-perception.

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## Detailed Findings

### PIAAC 2023 — Adult Competencies (Germany)

OECD Survey of Adult Skills, 2023 round (results published December 2024). Scale 0–500.

| Domain | Germany Score | OECD Average | Germany vs. OECD |
|--------|--------------|--------------|-----------------|
| Literacy | 284 | 260 | +24 points |
| Numeracy | 299 | 263 | +36 points |
| Adaptive Problem Solving | 255 | 251 | +4 points |

**Proficiency distribution (Literacy):**

| Level | Description | Germany share |
|-------|-------------|--------------|
| Below Level 2 | Cannot reliably process simple texts | ~21% |
| Level 2 | Basic functional literacy | ~33% |
| Level 3 | Moderate — adequate for most tasks | ~33% |
| Level 4/5 | High competency | ~14% |

*The ~21% below Level 2 represents ~14 million German adults who lack literacy sufficient for independent navigation of complex political or technical information.*

*Source: OECD PIAAC 2023. Manual update; next round expected ~2030.*

### Wissenschaftsbarometer 2024 — Science Trust (Germany)

Annual tracking survey by Wissenschaft im Dialog (WiD).

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Trust in scientists "a lot or somewhat" | ~60% |
| "Don't trust" scientists | ~16% |
| "Science benefits society more than it harms" | ~75% |
| Main information source for science: TV | ~45% |
| Main source: Internet/Social Media | ~38% |

*Source: Wissenschaftsbarometer 2024 (Wissenschaft im Dialog). Manual update required annually (published autumn).*

### Eurobarometer — Media Literacy & Disinformation Perception

| Metric | Value | Wave |
|--------|-------|------|
| Feel confident identifying fake news (DE) | ~72% | 2023 |
| Encounter fake news daily or almost daily | ~50% | 2023 |
| Check sources before sharing content | ~40% | 2023 |
| Think disinformation is a problem in DE | ~85% | 2023 |

*Source: Eurobarometer surveys on Media Pluralism and Democracy / Disinformation. Manual update. Note: confidence in identifying fake news is self-assessed — experimental studies consistently show actual competence is much lower.*

### Social Origin & Educational Stratification

Educational stratification is a structural precondition for epistemic competence gaps. Data: Destatis (2015/16), cited in Brockmeier/Gropp, IWH 2017.

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Gymnasium rate — children from high-education families | 61% |
| Gymnasium rate — children from low-education families | 14% |
| Upward mobility vs. Scandinavia | Significantly lower |
| Upward mobility vs. USA | Comparable |

*The 47-percentage-point gap in Gymnasium access by parental education is one structural mechanism producing the ~21% of adults below literacy Level 2. See DE-Social-Mobility (DS-00017) for full dataset.*

### Eurostat — Digital Skills (Germany, older series)

| Indicator | Year | Value |
|-----------|------|-------|
| Basic or above basic overall digital skills (% individuals 16–74) | 2019 | 70.2% |
| Basic skills | 2019 | ~39% |
| Above basic skills | 2019 | ~31% |

*Source: Eurostat isoc_sk_dskl_i. Newer (post-2019) DE data not available in PC_IND series.*

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## Source Analysis

### Why These Sources?

| Source | Strengths | Weaknesses | Weight |
|--------|-----------|------------|--------|
| **PIAAC 2023** | Only direct measurement of adult competencies; 40+ countries; skills tested not self-reported | Decennial; expensive; 2023 results are first update since 2012 | Very High |
| **Wissenschaftsbarometer** | Annual; Germany-specific; consistent methodology since 2014 | Self-report only; question framing effects | High |
| **Eurobarometer** | EU-comparable; consistent waves | Self-perception, not actual competency; question framing | Medium |
| **Eurostat digital skills** | EU-standardized | Series discontinued/changed post-2019 for PC_IND; self-assessed | Medium |

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## Research Metadata

| Attribute | Value |
|-----------|-------|
| **Research Date** | 2026-04-20 |
| **Researcher** | Sven / PAI |
| **Method** | Manual aggregation from authoritative annual/decennial sources |
| **Confidence Level** | 85–90% (PIAAC, direct measurement); 70–85% (perception surveys) |
| **Known Gaps** | No annual direct competency measurement; digital skills Eurostat series discontinued; gap between self-assessed and actual media literacy |
| **Update Frequency** | PIAAC ~decennial; Wissenschaftsbarometer annual (autumn); Eurobarometer periodic |

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## Connection to DE-Plan

- 21% of adults below literacy Level 2 (~14M people) → **CHALLENGE 5**: structural knowledge isolation; partially produced by 61% vs. 14% Gymnasium stratification by parental education (→ DE-Social-Mobility DS-00017)
- Science trust declining trend → **CHALLENGE 1**: epistemic fragmentation as populations diverge on what counts as credible knowledge
- High fake news confidence (72%) vs. low actual competence → **CHALLENGE 5**: citizens lack tools to evaluate claims independently despite believing they have them

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## Changelog

| Date | Change | Reason |
|------|--------|--------|
| 2026-04-20 | Initial dataset created | DE-Plan CHALLENGE 5 data gap |
| 2026-04-20 | Added social stratification section | IWH 2017 / Destatis data; links to DE-Social-Mobility DS-00017 |