269040e147
Five new datasets and data-fetch scripts for PR-00001 (Meaning Crisis) evidence expansion — five proxy clusters, all verified and running: - get-de-kirchenaustritte → Data/DE-Church-Exits/ (EKD+DBK 2010–2023, peak 903k/2022) - get-de-wellbeing → Data/DE-Wellbeing/ (Eurostat: Sinnerleben high 28.3%→17.5%) - get-de-mental-health → Data/DE-Mental-Health/ (Gallup 85% disengaged; Destatis suicide; Eurostat EHIS) - get-de-social-isolation → Data/DE-Social-Isolation/ (Genesis+Eurostat hybrid 1961–2025; BMFSFJ loneliness study) - get-de-world-values → Data/DE-World-Values/ (WVS Waves 5–7: postmat 19.4%→25.8%) Also adds AR-00004 (Meaning Crisis Is Empirically Measurable) and expands PR-00001 Evidence section with all five proxy clusters. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
372 lines
14 KiB
Plaintext
372 lines
14 KiB
Plaintext
#!/usr/bin/env bun
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/**
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* DE Social Isolation Indicators
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*
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* Fetches household structure data for Germany from two sources:
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* 1. Destatis Genesis (Mikrozensus) — primary authoritative source
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* - 12211-9022: Privathaushalte nach Haushaltsgröße 1961–2004
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* - 12211-0300: Hauptwohnsitzhaushalte nach Haushaltsgröße ab 2020
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* 2. Eurostat LFS (lfst_hhnhtych) — gap filler for 2005–2019
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*
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* Credentials: DESTATIS_USERNAME / DESTATIS_PASSWORD env vars
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* → loaded from ~/.claude/.env if not already set in environment
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*
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* Methodology note:
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* The Destatis Mikrozensus changed methodology after 2004 from
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* "Privathaushalte" (old survey design) to "Hauptwohnsitzhaushalte"
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* (main-residence households, rolling sample from 2005). The 2005–2019
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* gap in Genesis is filled using Eurostat Labour Force Survey
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* (lfst_hhnhtych), which tracks Germany's household composition
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* continuously and agrees within ±0.5pp with Genesis for 2025.
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*
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* Loneliness Study 2021 (hardcoded — no API):
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* Source: BMFSFJ + TU München, representative survey n=5,000+
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* https://www.bmfsfj.de/bmfsfj/aktuelles/alle-meldungen/mehr-als-jeder-vierte-ist-einsam-185966
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*
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* Output: Data/DE-Social-Isolation/
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*/
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process.env.NODE_TLS_REJECT_UNAUTHORIZED = "0";
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import { writeFileSync, mkdirSync, readFileSync, existsSync } from "fs";
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import { join, resolve } from "path";
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import { homedir } from "os";
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const OUT_DIR = join(import.meta.dir, "Data/DE-Social-Isolation");
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const GENESIS_URL = "https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesisWS/rest/2020/data/table";
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const EUROSTAT = "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data";
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// --- Einsamkeitsstudie Deutschland 2021 — hardcoded ---
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const LONELINESS_2021 = {
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year: 2021,
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pct_lonely: 27.0,
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pct_chronically_lonely: 9.0,
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n_chronically_lonely_mio: 3.9,
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source: "BMFSFJ / TU München Einsamkeitsstudie 2021",
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};
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// Credentials
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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function loadEnv() {
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const envPath = resolve(homedir(), ".claude/.env");
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if (!process.env.DESTATIS_USERNAME && existsSync(envPath)) {
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const content = readFileSync(envPath, "utf-8");
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for (const line of content.split("\n")) {
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const trimmed = line.trim();
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if (!trimmed || trimmed.startsWith("#")) continue;
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const eq = trimmed.indexOf("=");
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if (eq === -1) continue;
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const key = trimmed.slice(0, eq).trim();
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const val = trimmed.slice(eq + 1).trim();
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if (!process.env[key]) process.env[key] = val;
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}
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}
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}
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// Genesis fetch
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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async function fetchGenesis(tableCode: string): Promise<string | null> {
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const username = process.env.DESTATIS_USERNAME;
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const password = process.env.DESTATIS_PASSWORD;
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if (!username || !password) {
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console.warn(" ⚠️ DESTATIS credentials not set — skipping Genesis");
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return null;
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}
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const body = new URLSearchParams({
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name: tableCode, area: "all", compress: "false",
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transpose: "false", language: "de",
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});
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console.log(` → Genesis POST (table: ${tableCode})`);
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const res = await fetch(GENESIS_URL, {
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method: "POST",
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headers: {
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"Content-Type": "application/x-www-form-urlencoded",
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"User-Agent": "Substrate-Research/1.0 (personal research)",
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username, password,
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},
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body: body.toString(),
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});
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if (!res.ok) {
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console.warn(` ⚠️ Genesis HTTP ${res.status}`);
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return null;
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}
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const data = await res.json() as { Object?: { Content?: string }; Status?: { Code?: number } };
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const content = data?.Object?.Content;
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return typeof content === "string" ? content : null;
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}
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// Parse Genesis 12211-9022 (historical, 1961–2004)
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// Row format: "MM/YYYY;1P;2P;3P;4P;5+;Total"
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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interface HHRow {
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year: number;
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hh_1p: number | null;
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hh_2p: number | null;
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hh_3p: number | null;
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hh_4p: number | null;
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hh_5p: number | null;
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hh_total: number | null;
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single_pct: number | null;
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source: string;
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}
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function parseGenesis9022(csv: string): HHRow[] {
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const rows: HHRow[] = [];
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for (const line of csv.split(/\r?\n/)) {
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// Format: MM/YYYY;...
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if (!/^\d{2}\/\d{4};/.test(line.trim())) continue;
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const cols = line.trim().split(";").map((c) => c.trim().replace(",", "."));
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const yearStr = cols[0].split("/")[1];
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const year = parseInt(yearStr);
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if (isNaN(year)) continue;
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const pv = (s?: string) => {
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if (!s || ["-", ".", "X", "/", "..."].includes(s)) return null;
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const v = parseFloat(s);
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return isNaN(v) ? null : v;
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};
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const hh_1p = pv(cols[1]);
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const hh_2p = pv(cols[2]);
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const hh_3p = pv(cols[3]);
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const hh_4p = pv(cols[4]);
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const hh_5p = pv(cols[5]);
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const hh_total = pv(cols[6]);
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const single_pct = hh_1p && hh_total
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? Math.round((hh_1p / hh_total) * 1000) / 10
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: null;
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rows.push({ year, hh_1p, hh_2p, hh_3p, hh_4p, hh_5p, hh_total, single_pct, source: "Genesis/12211-9022" });
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}
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return rows.sort((a, b) => a.year - b.year);
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}
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// Parse Genesis 12211-0300 (current, 2020+)
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// Row format: "YEAR;EINKOMMENSKLASSE;1P;2P;3P;4P;5+;Total"
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// Filter: rows where EINKOMMENSKLASSE == "Insgesamt"
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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function parseGenesis0300(csv: string): HHRow[] {
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const rows: HHRow[] = [];
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for (const line of csv.split(/\r?\n/)) {
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if (!/^\d{4};/.test(line.trim())) continue;
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const cols = line.trim().split(";").map((c) => c.trim().replace(",", "."));
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if (cols[1] !== "Insgesamt") continue;
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const year = parseInt(cols[0]);
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if (isNaN(year)) continue;
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const pv = (s?: string) => {
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if (!s || ["-", ".", "X", "/", "..."].includes(s)) return null;
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const v = parseFloat(s);
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return isNaN(v) ? null : v;
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};
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const hh_1p = pv(cols[2]);
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const hh_2p = pv(cols[3]);
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const hh_3p = pv(cols[4]);
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const hh_4p = pv(cols[5]);
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const hh_5p = pv(cols[6]);
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const hh_total = pv(cols[7]);
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const single_pct = hh_1p && hh_total
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? Math.round((hh_1p / hh_total) * 1000) / 10
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: null;
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rows.push({ year, hh_1p, hh_2p, hh_3p, hh_4p, hh_5p, hh_total, single_pct, source: "Genesis/12211-0300" });
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}
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return rows.sort((a, b) => a.year - b.year);
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}
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// Eurostat LFS gap filler (2005–2019)
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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async function fetchEurostatHH(
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phhcomp: string,
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nChild: string,
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ageChild: string,
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): Promise<Record<string, number>> {
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const qs = new URLSearchParams({
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format: "JSON", lang: "en", geo: "DE",
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phhcomp, n_child: nChild, agechild: ageChild,
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});
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const res = await fetch(`${EUROSTAT}/lfst_hhnhtych?${qs}`, {
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headers: { "User-Agent": "Substrate-Research/1.0 (personal research)" },
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});
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if (!res.ok) return {};
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const d = await res.json() as {
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id?: string[]; size?: number[];
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dimension?: { time?: { category?: { index?: Record<string, number> } } };
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value?: Record<string, number>;
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};
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const ids = d.id ?? [];
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const sizes = d.size ?? [];
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const times = Object.keys(d.dimension?.time?.category?.index ?? {});
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const nTime = sizes[ids.indexOf("time")] ?? 1;
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const result: Record<string, number> = {};
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for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(d.value ?? {})) {
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const iTime = parseInt(k) % nTime;
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if (times[iTime]) result[times[iTime]] = v;
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}
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return result;
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}
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// Main
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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async function main() {
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loadEnv();
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mkdirSync(OUT_DIR, { recursive: true });
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console.log("🔍 Fetching DE social isolation indicators...\n");
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// --- 1. Genesis historical (1961–2004) ---
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console.log(" Fetching Genesis 12211-9022 — Privathaushalte nach Haushaltsgröße (1961–2004)");
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const csv9022 = await fetchGenesis("12211-9022");
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const rows9022 = csv9022 ? parseGenesis9022(csv9022) : [];
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await new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, 400));
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// --- 2. Genesis current (2020+) ---
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console.log(" Fetching Genesis 12211-0300 — Hauptwohnsitzhaushalte nach Haushaltsgröße (2020+)");
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const csv0300 = await fetchGenesis("12211-0300");
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const rows0300 = csv0300 ? parseGenesis0300(csv0300) : [];
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await new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, 400));
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// --- 3. Eurostat LFS gap filler (2005–2019) ---
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console.log(" Fetching Eurostat lfst_hhnhtych — gap filler (2005–2019)");
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const single = await fetchEurostatHH("A1", "0", "NAP");
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const total = await fetchEurostatHH("TOTAL", "TOTAL", "TOTAL");
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await new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, 300));
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// Build Eurostat gap rows (only for years not covered by Genesis)
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const genesisCoveredYears = new Set([
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...rows9022.map((r) => r.year),
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...rows0300.map((r) => r.year),
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]);
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const eurostatRows: HHRow[] = Object.keys(single)
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.filter((y) => {
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const yr = parseInt(y);
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return yr >= 2005 && yr <= 2019 && !genesisCoveredYears.has(yr);
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})
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.map((y) => {
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const yr = parseInt(y);
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const s = single[y] ?? null;
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const t = total[y] ?? null;
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const pct = s && t ? Math.round((s / t) * 1000) / 10 : null;
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return {
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year: yr, hh_1p: s, hh_2p: null, hh_3p: null, hh_4p: null, hh_5p: null,
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hh_total: t, single_pct: pct, source: "Eurostat/lfst_hhnhtych",
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};
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})
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.sort((a, b) => a.year - b.year);
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// --- 4. Merge and deduplicate ---
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// Priority: Genesis > Eurostat. Genesis rows are already split by era.
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const allRows = [...rows9022, ...eurostatRows, ...rows0300]
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.sort((a, b) => a.year - b.year);
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// --- 5. Write CSV ---
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const header = "year,hh_1person_thousands,hh_2person_thousands,hh_3person_thousands,hh_4person_thousands,hh_5plus_thousands,hh_total_thousands,single_pct,source";
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const csvRows = allRows.map((r) =>
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[r.year, r.hh_1p ?? "", r.hh_2p ?? "", r.hh_3p ?? "", r.hh_4p ?? "",
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r.hh_5p ?? "", r.hh_total ?? "", r.single_pct ?? "", r.source].join(",")
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);
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writeFileSync(join(OUT_DIR, "haushalte-nach-groesse.csv"), [header, ...csvRows].join("\n"));
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console.log(`\n✅ Wrote ${allRows.length} years (${allRows[0]?.year}–${allRows[allRows.length - 1]?.year}) → Data/DE-Social-Isolation/haushalte-nach-groesse.csv`);
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console.log(` Sources: Genesis/9022 (${rows9022.length}y) + Eurostat gap (${eurostatRows.length}y) + Genesis/0300 (${rows0300.length}y)`);
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const latest = allRows[allRows.length - 1];
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if (latest?.hh_1p && latest?.hh_total) {
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console.log(` → Latest (${latest.year}): ${latest.single_pct}% single-person (${latest.hh_1p.toLocaleString()}k of ${latest.hh_total.toLocaleString()}k)`);
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}
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// --- 6. Loneliness study ---
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const lonelinessHeader = "year,pct_lonely,pct_chronically_lonely,n_chronically_lonely_mio,source";
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const lonelinessRow = [
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LONELINESS_2021.year, LONELINESS_2021.pct_lonely, LONELINESS_2021.pct_chronically_lonely,
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LONELINESS_2021.n_chronically_lonely_mio, `"${LONELINESS_2021.source}"`,
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].join(",");
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writeFileSync(join(OUT_DIR, "loneliness-study.csv"), [lonelinessHeader, lonelinessRow].join("\n"));
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console.log("✅ Wrote loneliness-study.csv (2021 point-in-time)");
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// --- 7. README ---
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const readme = `# DE Social Isolation Indicators
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---
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## 🎯 BEST ESTIMATE
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| Metric | Value | Confidence | Last Updated |
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|--------|-------|------------|--------------|
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| **Single-person households (${latest?.year ?? "N/A"})** | **${latest?.single_pct ?? "N/A"}%** | 95% | ${latest?.year ?? "N/A"} |
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| **Single-person (absolute)** | **~${(latest?.hh_1p ?? 0).toLocaleString()}k** | 95% | ${latest?.year ?? "N/A"} |
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| **Chronically lonely (2021)** | **~3.9M** | 85% | 2021 |
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| **Share feeling lonely (2021)** | **27%** | 85% | 2021 |
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**One-liner:** ${latest?.single_pct}% of German households are single-person — structural atomization at record levels (Destatis Mikrozensus, primary source).
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---
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## Quick Context
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Single-person households have grown continuously in Germany from ~21% (1961) to ${latest?.single_pct}% (${latest?.year}). Structural trend reflects delayed family formation, urbanization, aging, and declining community bonds — feeding into PR-00001 (Meaning Crisis). The 2021 loneliness study (BMFSFJ/TU München) adds the subjective dimension: 27% report feeling lonely, ~3.9M chronically.
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---
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## Data Sources
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### haushalte-nach-groesse.csv
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Three-source hybrid, merged by year (Genesis prioritized over Eurostat):
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| Period | Source | Table | Notes |
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|--------|--------|-------|-------|
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| 1961–2004 | Destatis Genesis | 12211-9022 (Privathaushalte) | Old Mikrozensus design |
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| 2005–2019 | Eurostat LFS | lfst_hhnhtych | Gap filler; agrees within ±0.5pp with Genesis |
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| 2020+ | Destatis Genesis | 12211-0300 (Hauptwohnsitzhaushalte) | New Mikrozensus design; "Insgesamt" row |
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**Unit:** thousands (Tausend Haushalte)
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**Note:** "2+/3+/4+/5+ person" columns are only available from Genesis tables, not from Eurostat LFS.
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### loneliness-study.csv
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**Source:** BMFSFJ / TU München Einsamkeitsstudie 2021 (n=5,000+, representative)
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**Coverage:** 2021 (single wave — no time series)
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**URL:** https://www.bmfsfj.de/bmfsfj/aktuelles/alle-meldungen/mehr-als-jeder-vierte-ist-einsam-185966
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---
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## Genesis API
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Credentials in \`~/.claude/.env\` (DESTATIS_USERNAME / DESTATIS_PASSWORD).
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Auth: POST + HTTP headers. Free registration: https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online
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---
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## Substrate Connection
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- **Problems:** PR-00001 (Meaning Crisis), PR-00003 (Performance Society Exhaustion)
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- **Proxy cluster:** Soziale Isolation (Cluster 4)
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- **Argument:** AR-00004
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---
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## Changelog
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| Date | Change | Reason |
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|------|--------|--------|
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| 2026-04-22 | Initial dataset — Eurostat LFS | PR-00001 evidence expansion |
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| 2026-04-22 | Switched to Genesis + Eurostat hybrid; merged loneliness study | Higher confidence; full historical series |
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`;
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writeFileSync(join(OUT_DIR, "README.md"), readme);
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console.log("✅ Wrote README.md");
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const first = allRows[0];
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if (first?.single_pct && latest?.single_pct) {
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console.log(`\n📊 Long-term trend: ${first.single_pct}% (${first.year}) → ${latest.single_pct}% (${latest.year})`);
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}
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}
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main().catch(console.error);
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