Substrate/Data/DE-Social-Isolation/DE-Social-Isolation.md at main

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svemagie 34c99ec7a9 fix: rename 6 DE datasets README.md→{Name}.md + add 7 missing source catalogs

Renames (consistent naming convention):
- DE-Church-Exits, DE-Mental-Health, DE-Social-Isolation,
  DE-Wastewater-Surveillance, DE-Wellbeing, DE-World-Values

New source catalog entries (DS-00021 through DS-00027):
- Church Exits (EKD/DBK), Common Metrics (Destatis/Bundesbank/BA/ZEW),
  Democracy Metrics (V-Dem/RSF/ALLBUS), Mental Health (Gallup/Destatis/DAK),
  Social Isolation (Genesis/Einsamkeitsstudie), Wellbeing (Eurostat EHIS),
  World Values (WVS/EVS)

All 16 DE datasets + 1 EU dataset now have consistent naming and source catalogs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-04-23 12:05:57 +02:00

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🎯 BEST ESTIMATE

Metric	Value	Confidence	Last Updated
Single-person households (2025)	42.1%	95%	2025
Single-person (absolute)	~17,327k	95%	2025
Chronically lonely (2021)	~3.9M	85%	2021
Share feeling lonely (2021)	27%	85%	2021

One-liner: 42.1% of German households are single-person — structural atomization at record levels.

Caveat: Single-person household rate ≠ loneliness rate; many live alone by choice. Use as structural proxy, not direct measure of isolation.

Quick Context

Single-person households have grown continuously in Germany from ~21% (1961) to 42.1% (2025). Structural trend reflects delayed family formation, urbanization, aging, and declining community bonds — feeding into PR-00001 (Meaning Crisis). The 2021 loneliness study (BMFSFJ/TU München) adds the subjective dimension: 27% report feeling lonely, ~3.9M chronically.

Data Sources

haushalte-nach-groesse.csv

Three-source hybrid, merged by year (Genesis prioritized over Eurostat):

Period	Source	Table	Notes
1961–2004	Destatis Genesis	12211-9022 (Privathaushalte)	Old Mikrozensus design
2005–2019	Eurostat LFS	lfst_hhnhtych	Gap filler; agrees within ±0.5pp with Genesis
2020+	Destatis Genesis	12211-0300 (Hauptwohnsitzhaushalte)	New Mikrozensus design; "Insgesamt" row

Unit: thousands (Tausend Haushalte) Note: "2+/3+/4+/5+ person" columns are only available from Genesis tables, not from Eurostat LFS.

loneliness-study.csv

Source: BMFSFJ / TU München Einsamkeitsstudie 2021 (n=5,000+, representative) Coverage: 2021 (single wave — no time series) URL: https://www.bmfsfj.de/bmfsfj/aktuelles/alle-meldungen/mehr-als-jeder-vierte-ist-einsam-185966

Genesis API

Credentials in ~/.claude/.env (DESTATIS_USERNAME / DESTATIS_PASSWORD). Auth: POST + HTTP headers. Free registration: https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online

Substrate Connection

Problems: PR-00001 (Meaning Crisis), PR-00003 (Performance Society Exhaustion)
Proxy cluster: Soziale Isolation (Cluster 4)
Argument: AR-00004

Changelog

Date	Change	Reason
2026-04-22	Initial dataset — Eurostat LFS	PR-00001 evidence expansion
2026-04-22	Switched to Genesis + Eurostat hybrid; merged loneliness study	Higher confidence; full historical series

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DE Social Isolation Indicators